Official Tesla Talk Thread **No Politics**

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by EME_Bounce

I learned something a long time ago about the mentality of an engineer vs other people. Engineers find ways to make things possible while everyone else is making excuses.

Definitely true, but engineers - most not being product people - also massively fuck things up with good intentions & unintended consequences ... It's not just about bee-boop-look-at-the-numbers-bing-bong it's about creating an aspirational product people WANT to buy that's also better.

In the case of hydrogen, before we ever get to the product side, we first gotta consider some of the possible unintended consequences of "hydrogen" ...

Guess who's all for hydrogen? Big Oil! What could go wrong?
Heeeyyyy wait ... "Hydrocarbons" has "hydro" right in the name! So where does hydrogen come from?



Ok, cool, so there's green hydrogen but ... also grey - is that bad?



Oops, grey hydrogen is worse than fossil fuels! But that unintended consequence wouldn't happen would it?



Well, yeah, because why go green hydro when grey is so much cheaper?

This may explain why the biggest hydrogen advocates are companies like Equinor ASA, Royal Dutch Shell, PetroChina, and others ...

And hydrogen also needs long fragile global supply chains just like Big Oil: pipelines, ships & storage depots ... that doesn't seem better ...

And then there's the what the retail pump require:

Maybe there are ways around all this stuff, but hydrogen sure looks like the fastest road to hell for anyone trying to limit emissions.

And if your goal is limiting emissions why risk all of that and let the perfect be the enemy of the good: EVs?

Go with the good enough.

[TiMSport]

Originally Posted by GrussGott

Go with the good enough.

Isn't this kind of what people thought about standard hybrids before EV began to gain traction? Of course I realize hybrids are still dominant compared to EV but perhaps it's just a matter of time? Who knows, perhaps FC vehicles will eventually take off. Before that ever happens though, clearly we need the infrastructure to support it.

Clearly Tesla has played a tremendous role in helping the acceptance of EV due to their superior batteries and long distance capabilities and importantly, the supercharger system.

I can't help but think someone is going to eventually fill this role for FC vehicles.

[EME_Bounce]

Originally Posted by GrussGott

Definitely true, but engineers - most not being product people - also massively fuck things up with good intentions & unintended consequences ... It's not just about bee-boop-look-at-the-numbers-bing-bong it's about creating an aspirational product people WANT to buy that's also better.

In the case of hydrogen, before we ever get to the product side, we first gotta consider some of the possible unintended consequences of "hydrogen" ...

Guess who's all for hydrogen? Big Oil! What could go wrong?
Heeeyyyy wait ... "Hydrocarbons" has "hydro" right in the name! So where does hydrogen come from?



Ok, cool, so there's green hydrogen but ... also grey - is that bad?



Oops, grey hydrogen is worse than fossil fuels! But that unintended consequence wouldn't happen would it?



Well, yeah, because why go green hydro when grey is so much cheaper?

This may explain why the biggest hydrogen advocates are companies like Equinor ASA, Royal Dutch Shell, PetroChina, and others ...

And hydrogen also needs long fragile global supply chains just like Big Oil: pipelines, ships & storage depots ... that doesn't seem better ...

And then there's the what the retail pump require:

Maybe there are ways around all this stuff, but hydrogen sure looks like the fastest road to hell for anyone trying to limit emissions.

And if your goal is limiting emissions why risk all of that and let the perfect be the enemy of the good: EVs?

Go with the good enough.

Wow, you are truly delusional and uninformed. I wish you all the best.

[EME_Bounce]

Originally Posted by TiMSport

Isn't this kind of what people thought about standard hybrids before EV began to gain traction? Of course I realize hybrids are still dominant compared to EV but perhaps it's just a matter of time? Who knows, perhaps FC vehicles will eventually take off. Before that ever happens though, clearly we need the infrastructure to support it.

Clearly Tesla has played a tremendous role in helping the acceptance of EV due to their superior batteries and long distance capabilities and importantly, the supercharger system.

I can't help but think someone is going to eventually fill this role for FC vehicles.

Toyota and Honda.

[TiMSport]

Originally Posted by EME_Bounce

Toyota and Honda.

Agreed. I went to a Fuel Cell expo in Tokyo several years ago and listened to some top level execs presenting their vision for FCV and I was impressed with their vision. I was also surprised at how active some of the American players were though you don't really hear anything about it. In any case, it's all about the infrastructure. I don't think Japan is meeting their projections in terms of their infrastructure plans but we sure as hell aren't anywhere near it here in the US.

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by KRS_SN

Would petrol stations be profitable if they allocated spaces for chargers?
they would be turkeys voting for Christmas if they allocated spacrs for chargers instead of fuel pumps.

Which is why most petrol stations will suddenly go bankrupt ... it'll seem like one day there were a zillion and then the next day 50% are out of business as they get crushed between demand collapse AND supply collapse ...

If petrol stations were my game, I'd be looking to expand my real estate footprint at every location and establish multiple independent sources of revenue ... just spitballing:

(1.) Coffee via drive-thru - starbucks, et al partnership?
(2.) Fresh deli sandwiches available via drive-thru - subway, chipotle, et al?
(3.) Amazon Go partnership?

Also they need a new loss leader - could be coffee, could even be beer/wine (undercut everyone else for a few major brands - could be tough tho...)


Anyway, most that don't start doing that right away to establish local habits, while they have the traffic, are gonna die.

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by EME_Bounce

Wow, you are truly delusional and uninformed. I wish you all the best.

LOL, if I had a nickel ...

My all time favorite internet reply to a few cogent points is:

✓ The personal insult, followed by
✓ "cuz imma sMaRTy!" backed up with
✓ zero knowledge, and then
✓ the ole well-wishing.

The one you missed is where you explain your credentials ... 4 out of 5 tho.

Geezus dude, at least have the courage to try!

[KRS_SN]

Originally Posted by GrussGott

You gotta wonder what kind of data they're seeing to get this desperate

https://twitter.com/CNBCnow/status/1...083570189?s=20

BBC News - VW rebrand turns out to be April Fools' joke
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56582567

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by KRS_SN

BBC News - VW rebrand turns out to be April Fools' joke
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56582567

Yeah, so I always thought the key thing with April Fools' jokes was to release them on April Fools

VW is going the BMW route of media / PR disasters, "Noooo this isn't lies like that whole dieselgate thing! ... This is an April Fools joke not on April Fools; see the difference??"

I guess you gotta applaud them for going all in though - and their new 12 min-to-80% batteries will be nice ... maybe VW PR can do a what-else-takes-12-minutes skit.

[GrussGott]

This new electric Benz coming out in April is slab looking, for aerodynamics I guess:



with a bonkers interior:

[KRS_SN]

the thing above looks horrifying.
Other news
https://www.bmwblog.com/2021/03/30/b...ight-electric/

[David70]

Originally Posted by Efthreeoh

I'm a former manufacturing engineer, now manage the business of engineering and implementing new technology. Yes, engineers figure out problems to make things possible, but there are the natural laws of physics and chemistry and most importantly, budgets.

Agree. I manage international business development. Trying to remember how many "perfect" solutions engineers have come up with to solve problems with the only sticking point being no one would actually buy the finished product because of the price or because of other things needed to actually use it. Then the market is dumb as they don't agree with the solution we came up with.

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by KRS_SN

the thing above looks horrifying.
Other news
https://www.bmwblog.com/2021/03/30/b...ight-electric/

that's so rich - I posted this elsewhere:

BMW CEO Oliver Zipse:

"There is a perception that we took a break, but we actually didn't take a break ... We waited for the moment when electromobility is really getting into higher volumes"

And the real kicker:

Zipse said BMW's market cap of around 55 billion euros ($64.7 billion) is lower than its assets of around 60 billion euros. "Something is wrong there," he said. "That would assume that you don't have a future."

In case you don't know German, translation:

▸ 5 years ago we put cowardly accountants in charge of product dev, not engineers.

▸ We wanted to be the last to market despite starting as the first.

▸ Investors believe we're fucking up so bad, our company is worth more as scrap

[KRS_SN]

but if bmw had mass produced ev before they were in demand they would be in financial pain/losses.
They haven't and are not in pain. They are taking steps to avoid future pain. Isn't this the real translation?
Car sales is a 10k marathon. Just because Usain bolt tesla ran fast doesn't mean that others have no hope. Its called pacing.

[TiMSport]

A certain group in Congress sure doesn't seem to want to invest in infrastructure that would directly benefit EV. Sigh.

[Fly320s]

Originally Posted by TiMSport

A certain group in Congress sure doesn't seem to want to invest in infrastructure that would directly benefit EV. Sigh.

Why should congress spend taxpayer's money to benefit certain companies over other companies?

[TiMSport]

Originally Posted by Fly320s

Why should congress spend taxpayer's money to benefit certain companies over other companies?

I'd rather they spend money on infrastructure than the top 1% in this country. My perspective on this is simply that it should benefit all if investments are made to help accelerate proliferation of EV among other needed things, not necessarily one company over another. At least that's how I look at it.

If certain companies benefit more than others, perhaps that is a result of them having foresight?

[Efthreeoh]

Originally Posted by GrussGott

In a related story ... er, stories, EV MFRs better figure this shit out fast or it's gonna cost sales, possibly a corporate-level amount of them ...

Already cost BMW a 45e sale to me:

✘ Don’t park your Hyundai Kona EV inside because it could catch fire
Hyundai is recalling more than 80,000 EVs over battery fire concerns

✘ GM recalls 68,000 electric Chevy Bolts over battery fire concerns
There have been at least five incidents of Bolt batteries catching fire

✘ LG Chem hit by GM recall of Bolt electric vehicles
Shares in world’s largest EV battery maker fall 4% on reliability concerns

What's worse for the environment, burning lithium or burning gasoline?

[stein_325i]

Tesla Delivers Record 184,800 Model 3, Y, S & X Globally In Q1 2021
Impressive numbers for just the Model 3 and Y considering Model S and X were not produced during the first quarter due to the upcoming facelift.

Originally Posted by Tesla

In the first quarter, we produced just over 180,000 vehicles and delivered nearly 185,000 vehicles. We are encouraged by the strong reception of the Model Y in China and are quickly progressing to full production capacity. The new Model S and Model X have also been exceptionally well received, with the new equipment installed and tested in Q1 and we are in the early stages of ramping production.

Our net income and cash flow results will be announced along with the rest of our financial performance when we announce Q1 earnings. Our delivery count should be viewed as slightly conservative, as we only count a car as delivered if it is transferred to the customer and all paperwork is correct. Final numbers could vary by up to 0.5% or more. Tesla vehicle deliveries represent only one measure of the company’s financial performance and should not be relied on as an indicator of quarterly financial results, which depend on a variety of factors, including the cost of sales, foreign exchange movements and mix of directly leased vehicles.

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by KRS_SN

but if bmw had mass produced ev before they were in demand they would be in financial pain/losses.
They haven't and are not in pain. They are taking steps to avoid future pain. Isn't this the real translation?

(1.) BMW *is* in financial pain - they're priced below scrap or as the CEO says their stock price "implies we have no future". Further, their financials aren't great:

They're barely sneaking a profit:



And they're operating in debt:



(2.) BMW *did* start selling EVs/PHEVs, notably the i3 & i8

(3.) BMW knew back to at least 2007 they were facing 4 disruption risks:
‣ SUVs
‣ China
‣ Millennials
‣ EVs

Back then, they took steps to address all of them - which was smart: get ahead of challenges while you have the time, money, and talent to do it.

But then went wobbly and let the accountants take over an abandoned EVs based on the ole hope plan ... and hope is not a plan.

What BMW didn't act on was, the EV risk impacts all of the others - get that one wrong and no matter how great you've address the others, they all fall if EVs take off. And what's worse, in allowing the accountants to take over product, they lost all their great product and design people and now they've got a crisis, a terrible balance sheet, and no talent to address the crisis.

BMW fucked up in a big way - it's 50-50 if they can recover, but if they do they'll be one of the very few companies to save a disruption nose-dive ...

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by Fly320s

Why should congress spend taxpayer's money to benefit certain companies over other companies?

I hope this is a joke, cause if it's not you're gonna be surprised when you find out the last 200 years of Congress' fiscal policy.

Spoiler alert: it's hard (impossible?) to find a case where Congress isn't doing that.

(and if by "320s" you name implies A320s, then you might consider that Boeing isn't bankrupt as one of said cases)

[GrussGott]

Hey speaking of hydrogen cars, the Toyota Mirai hydrogens come with their own expiration date for refueling safely: