BMW Garage BMW Meets Register Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read
Go Back   6Post.com | BMW 6-Series Forum > BIMMERPOST Universal Forums > Off-Topic Discussions Board

Post Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
      05-08-2020, 02:26 PM   #661
XutvJet
Major General
5491
Rep
5,339
Posts

Drives: 2011 Cayman Base, 2016 M235
Join Date: Mar 2016
Location: Kansas City

iTrader: (-1)

I remain totally confused as to why the market continues to have upwards trajectory. Employment is really bad and I believe it will get worse. Right now, most of the lost jobs are blue collar. I'm a white collar worker in the environmental consulting industry and support mergers & acquisitions (due diligence). Our DD work has dried up 90%+ since mid-March. My private equity clients aren't doing deals for a multitude of reasons. The attorneys I work with have cut their hours significantly (i.e., taken big pay cuts). I'm taking voluntary vacation to help reduce the financial burden on our company. I'll likely be asked to temporarily reduce my hours and take a 20% pay cut and could possibly be furloughed. I have other white collar friends that are experiencing the same (mandatory vacation, furlough, pay cuts). I also have friends in the medical professional that have been furloughed or layed off because hardly anyone is doing elective surgery, PT, etc. I think the May and June unemployment numbers will be terrible.

As such, I feel the bottom is going to drop out in June/July (20%-30%+ drop). As the country opens back up (which I'm mostly in support of), I think there will be a second wave of outbreaks in the August-October timeframe and some of us will go back into a lock-down situation (maybe not as extreme). Hopefully the outbreaks will be better controlled and managed. A surge will certainly impact the market and the government can't keep sending out money it doesn't have.

I'm really wavering on selling a decent portion of my S&P 500 index funds and Berk Class B in my Roth, traditional IRA, and 401K and just holding it as cash. I wouldn't touch anything in my brokerage due to cap gains. These sales would represent about 15% of my total portfolio. I'm just trying to better manage the bleeding that I think is coming and trying to keep from taking a 40%+ hit like I did in the early 2000s and 2008-2011. Right now my total portfolio is down about 15% from it's peak earlier in the year.

I totally believe in long-term holding for the most part, but what I'm seeing makes no sense and this is a unique situation we're in right now. Am I off my rocker?
__________________
The forest was shrinking, but the Trees kept voting for the Axe, for the Axe was clever and convinced the Trees that because his handle was made of wood, he was one of them.

Last edited by XutvJet; 05-08-2020 at 02:32 PM..
Appreciate 2
      05-08-2020, 02:47 PM   #662
BimmerDimmer6
Captain
BimmerDimmer6's Avatar
United_States
1472
Rep
826
Posts

Drives: 2016 F80 M3 6MT / 2019 Raptor
Join Date: Apr 2020
Location: Tampa Fl

iTrader: (0)

Yes, we're fucked
Appreciate 2
      05-08-2020, 02:59 PM   #663
Bimmer Nerd
Major General
Bimmer Nerd's Avatar
United_States
516
Rep
7,787
Posts

Drives: 6MT F80
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Santa Monica, CA

iTrader: (11)

Quote:
Originally Posted by XutvJet View Post
I remain totally confused as to why the market continues to have upwards trajectory. Employment is really bad and I believe it will get worse. Right now, most of the lost jobs are blue collar. I'm a white collar worker in the environmental consulting industry and support mergers & acquisitions (due diligence). Our DD work has dried up 90%+ since mid-March. My private equity clients aren't doing deals for a multitude of reasons. The attorneys I work with have cut their hours significantly (i.e., taken big pay cuts). I'm taking voluntary vacation to help reduce the financial burden on our company. I'll likely be asked to temporarily reduce my hours and take a 20% pay cut and could possibly be furloughed. I have other white collar friends that are experiencing the same (mandatory vacation, furlough, pay cuts). I also have friends in the medical professional that have been furloughed or layed off because hardly anyone is doing elective surgery, PT, etc. I think the May and June unemployment numbers will be terrible.

As such, I feel the bottom is going to drop out in June/July (20%-30%+ drop). As the country opens back up (which I'm mostly in support of), I think there will be a second wave of outbreaks in the August-October timeframe and some of us will go back into a lock-down situation (maybe not as extreme). Hopefully the outbreaks will be better controlled and managed. A surge will certainly impact the market and the government can't keep sending out money it doesn't have.

I'm really wavering on selling a decent portion of my S&P 500 index funds and Berk Class B in my Roth, traditional IRA, and 401K and just holding it as cash. I wouldn't touch anything in my brokerage due to cap gains. These sales would represent about 15% of my total portfolio. I'm just trying to better manage the bleeding that I think is coming and trying to keep from taking a 40%+ hit like I did in the early 2000s and 2008-2011. Right now my total portfolio is down about 15% from it's peak earlier in the year.

I totally believe in long-term holding for the most part, but what I'm seeing makes no sense and this is a unique situation we're in right now. Am I off my rocker?

Not at all.

An eventual dip is coming, I think it will be sooner than July, but we'll see. We're no more than 13-14% down from an ATH. The world is more than 13-14% fucked up. Hold on to your cash.
Appreciate 1
      05-08-2020, 03:22 PM   #664
corn18
Captain
corn18's Avatar
1712
Rep
618
Posts

Drives: 2020 X3 M40i
Join Date: Jul 2019
Location: SW OH

iTrader: (0)

Garage List
2014 Jeep Wrangler 2D  [0.00]
2015 Chevy 2500HD  [0.00]
2015 Z4  [0.00]
2020 X3 M40i  [0.00]
How will you know when to get back in? You have to be right twice.
__________________
stultorum criminis reus erit
Appreciate 3
Nuckle2186.00
Littlebear3508.50
      05-08-2020, 03:45 PM   #665
AlpineWhite_SJ
Banned
United_States
1577
Rep
1,024
Posts

Drives: 2018 F80 M3 ZCP, 2020 F97 X3MC
Join Date: Sep 2017
Location: Bay Area, CA

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by XutvJet View Post

I'm really wavering on selling a decent portion of my S&P 500 index funds and Berk Class B in my Roth, traditional IRA, and 401K and just holding it as cash. I wouldn't touch anything in my brokerage due to cap gains. These sales would represent about 15% of my total portfolio. I'm just trying to better manage the bleeding that I think is coming and trying to keep from taking a 40%+ hit like I did in the early 2000s and 2008-2011. Right now my total portfolio is down about 15% from it's peak earlier in the year.

I totally believe in long-term holding for the most part, but what I'm seeing makes no sense and this is a unique situation we're in right now. Am I off my rocker?
Not off your rocker, but if you don’t need the cash, why eat a 15% loss? Especially when it’s only a fraction of your portfolio...

I’d only sell to hedge against losing employment (possible) if the cash would put you in a better place to weather that, or to put it into a safer asset category. But there aren’t a whole lot of options that are appealing right now.
Appreciate 1
      05-08-2020, 03:46 PM   #666
Benedict1957
Enlisted Member
42
Rep
35
Posts

Drives: 2008 E90 M3
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: TX

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by corn18 View Post
How will you know when to get back in? You have to be right twice.
Yeah that's the million dollar question.

There's nothing wrong with taking a risk by going cash right now as long as one recognizes it for what it is - a risk.

Some people will get back in at the right time. Some people will fail to get back in and will have to buy in when the market is much more expensive. I've played this game before once and I lost. I made a bad bet. This way back in late 2011 when the S&P500 had a correction. I sold during the correction and failed to get back in until 3 years later because I was betting on another 2008-like crash that never happened. This bet was with about 15% of my total portfolio, but it still stings.

I'll continue with my buy and hold strategy that's given me a 10%+ compound annual growth rate over over the last 30+ years. It could've been 11% had I not tried to play guessing games with the market. I'm not that shrewd.

For anyone that cares, 90% of my money is in:

FCNKX (5%)
FSPSX (20%)
FSKAX (15%)
FXAIX (60%)

10% of my money is what I play with, and it has not done better than how a buy and hold strategy would have done. It's up 64% over the last 2 decades. The S&P500 is up 320%.
Appreciate 1
      05-08-2020, 03:52 PM   #667
Bimmer Nerd
Major General
Bimmer Nerd's Avatar
United_States
516
Rep
7,787
Posts

Drives: 6MT F80
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Santa Monica, CA

iTrader: (11)

Quote:
Originally Posted by corn18 View Post
How will you know when to get back in? You have to be right twice.
Will I time the market perfectly enough where I get in at the ultimate bottom? Probably not.

However, once we start seeing another correction, I'll start Dollar Cost Averaging.
Appreciate 2
      05-09-2020, 02:30 AM   #668
premier3is
Major
premier3is's Avatar
1627
Rep
1,002
Posts

Drives: 2019 BMW 330i M-Sport
Join Date: Jul 2019
Location: CA

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bimmer Nerd View Post
14.7% unemployment - *We did better than 15% estimated*

Green day!

Gotta love America
Only here will you see such bullshit.

At this point the higher the unemployment rate gets + worsening job reports we see, we'll keep seeing the market moving up.

Has to be the most idiotic thing I've ever seen. Fuck it, let's all hope for a 25-50% unemployment rate so we can have the markets hit all time highs!!!
Appreciate 1
      05-09-2020, 09:44 AM   #669
Zara
Lieutenant
United_States
611
Rep
434
Posts

Drives: 2014 335i
Join Date: Jun 2017
Location: Chicago

iTrader: (1)

The stock market is not the economy.
__________________
2014 335i 6MT /// Mineral Gray - Red Coral
| M Perf Spoiler | M Perf Lip & Diffuser | M Perf Grilles | M Perf Side Splitters | M Perf CF & Alcantra Interior Trim |
| Wagner Evo II FMIC | VRSF DP | AA CP | CTS Turbo Intake | MHD Stage 2 Tune | H&R Sports | Bilstein B8s |
Appreciate 3
      05-09-2020, 11:52 AM   #670
premier3is
Major
premier3is's Avatar
1627
Rep
1,002
Posts

Drives: 2019 BMW 330i M-Sport
Join Date: Jul 2019
Location: CA

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Zara View Post
The stock market is not the economy.
I knew someone here would say that. We get it, "it's not the economy".

I'm generally concerned people do not understand basic economics and how there is a correlation between the stock market and economic conditions when I see comments like that.

Long term economic growth will usually benefit stocks and in contrast if the economy is forecasted to enter a recession the market will generally fall...

the one figure alone, a 14.7% unemployment rate really leads me to believe we are in poor economic conditions and the stock market has no business moving this way, prove me wrong (and don't say the market is proving me wrong).
Appreciate 1
      05-09-2020, 12:17 PM   #671
corn18
Captain
corn18's Avatar
1712
Rep
618
Posts

Drives: 2020 X3 M40i
Join Date: Jul 2019
Location: SW OH

iTrader: (0)

Garage List
2014 Jeep Wrangler 2D  [0.00]
2015 Chevy 2500HD  [0.00]
2015 Z4  [0.00]
2020 X3 M40i  [0.00]
What does it really matter? The market will do whatever the market does and I defy anyone to tell me what that will be over the next day, week, month or year. Nobody knows anything but they sure like to talk a lot.

The economy, on the other hand, seems to be more predictable and 14% unemployment is really bad. If the consumer doesn't consume, our economy recesses or even depresses. Pretty simple formula, really.

What the market does in response to that is anyone's guess.
__________________
stultorum criminis reus erit
Appreciate 4
Zara610.50
Rmtt8206.00
      05-09-2020, 12:47 PM   #672
Zara
Lieutenant
United_States
611
Rep
434
Posts

Drives: 2014 335i
Join Date: Jun 2017
Location: Chicago

iTrader: (1)

Quote:
Originally Posted by premier3is View Post
I knew someone here would say that. We get it, "it's not the economy".

I'm generally concerned people do not understand basic economics and how there is a correlation between the stock market and economic conditions when I see comments like that.

Long term economic growth will usually benefit stocks and in contrast if the economy is forecasted to enter a recession the market will generally fall...

the one figure alone, a 14.7% unemployment rate really leads me to believe we are in poor economic conditions and the stock market has no business moving this way, prove me wrong (and don't say the market is proving me wrong).
I'm not saying there is no correlation. I'm saying that the stock market and the economy are not the same thing. There's a lot of different things that affect stocks other than just economics

For example, China's GDP was growing 6% annually, yet their stock market has remained at the same levels it was 10 years ago.

The stock market moves because of liquidity. Headlines move the market short term and we have seen a lot of money pulled out of the market. But there is still a lot of money being put back into the stocks (The Fed, Hedge Funds, Investors buying these low prices, Pension funds.. the list goes on).

I also think that a lot of people knew back in March that the government can't keep a nation on lock down for such a long time and in 2 months or so would be forced to reopen.
__________________
2014 335i 6MT /// Mineral Gray - Red Coral
| M Perf Spoiler | M Perf Lip & Diffuser | M Perf Grilles | M Perf Side Splitters | M Perf CF & Alcantra Interior Trim |
| Wagner Evo II FMIC | VRSF DP | AA CP | CTS Turbo Intake | MHD Stage 2 Tune | H&R Sports | Bilstein B8s |
Appreciate 2
premier3is1627.00
      05-09-2020, 02:54 PM   #673
FCobra94
Guest
0
Rep
n/a
Posts

Drives:


Quote:
Originally Posted by Zara View Post
I'm not saying there is no correlation. I'm saying that the stock market and the economy are not the same thing. There's a lot of different things that affect stocks other than just economics
Pretty much...and given that every reaction in the market is an overreaction, you can expect stocks to keep rising during this bounce; however long it decides to run. That's mostly because news that has hit the headlines is mostly "good" news; employees getting furloughed within businesses that can't stay open? That's good news. Progress with quicker testing and possible vaccine trials? That's good news. Everything else has already been priced in...until it's not.
Appreciate 1
      05-09-2020, 03:39 PM   #674
BimmerDimmer6
Captain
BimmerDimmer6's Avatar
United_States
1472
Rep
826
Posts

Drives: 2016 F80 M3 6MT / 2019 Raptor
Join Date: Apr 2020
Location: Tampa Fl

iTrader: (0)

Trump: "we're going to come roaring back, like you've never seen before, the market is actually up today, did you see that?"

*Sells everything
Appreciate 1
Littlebear3508.50
      05-12-2020, 04:53 PM   #675
MisterF80M3
Major
MisterF80M3's Avatar
1046
Rep
1,164
Posts

Drives: 2018 M3
Join Date: Jul 2018
Location: CA

iTrader: (4)

BA looks ready to roll over..

__________________
2018 BMW F80 ///M3
570WHP/578TQ
Appreciate 0
      05-12-2020, 05:08 PM   #676
BMW F22
Major General
BMW F22's Avatar
United_States
3540
Rep
9,785
Posts

Drives: ///M235i
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: Bay Area

iTrader: (8)

Market was wtf today. Up up up and then boom, down 450 points. It’s way too volatile for my taste hence been holding back on further investment.
Appreciate 0
      05-12-2020, 06:45 PM   #677
Littlebear
Banned
United_States
3509
Rep
2,044
Posts

Drives: ...the Mods crazy.
Join Date: Oct 2017
Location: Not here, apparently....

iTrader: (2)

Medical & health
Appreciate 1
Rmtt8206.00
      05-12-2020, 07:57 PM   #678
MisterF80M3
Major
MisterF80M3's Avatar
1046
Rep
1,164
Posts

Drives: 2018 M3
Join Date: Jul 2018
Location: CA

iTrader: (4)

Quote:
Originally Posted by BMW F22 View Post
Market was wtf today. Up up up and then boom, down 450 points. It’s way too volatile for my taste hence been holding back on further investment.
Same. Only playing around with 20% and holding 80% cash.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Littlebear View Post
Medical & health
Pharmaceuticals have been ripping. I got in VRTX and CODX last week. Sold CODX in the morning today, still holding VRTX.
__________________
2018 BMW F80 ///M3
570WHP/578TQ
Appreciate 2
      05-12-2020, 08:03 PM   #679
VeloF1
Second Lieutenant
VeloF1's Avatar
318
Rep
280
Posts

Drives: F82, 996 Turbo S, E46 & E36
Join Date: Oct 2015
Location: Sacramento, CA

iTrader: (0)

Garage List
2015 M4  [0.00]
Don’t ask car guys. They make the worst investments on record.
__________________
IG @velof1
Appreciate 2
      05-12-2020, 08:05 PM   #680
NemesisX
Captain
317
Rep
905
Posts

Drives: '19 Infiniti Q60S
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: TX

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by MisterF80M3 View Post
Same. Only playing around with 20% and holding 80% cash.



Pharmaceuticals have been ripping. I got in VRTX and CODX last week. Sold CODX in the morning today, still holding VRTX.
80% of your play money or 80% of your entire liquid assets?
Appreciate 1
      05-12-2020, 09:16 PM   #681
MisterF80M3
Major
MisterF80M3's Avatar
1046
Rep
1,164
Posts

Drives: 2018 M3
Join Date: Jul 2018
Location: CA

iTrader: (4)

Quote:
Originally Posted by NemesisX View Post
80% of your play money or 80% of your entire liquid assets?
80% of my play money for stocks.
__________________
2018 BMW F80 ///M3
570WHP/578TQ
Appreciate 1
      05-13-2020, 01:57 AM   #682
NeverL8
Captain
NeverL8's Avatar
522
Rep
743
Posts

Drives: Slow
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: SD

iTrader: (0)

What you guys think about VTIQ ?

I got in at $20...short/long term profit?
Appreciate 1
Post Reply

Bookmarks

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 02:19 AM.




6post.com
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.
1Addicts.com, BIMMERPOST.com, E90Post.com, F30Post.com, M3Post.com, ZPost.com, 5Post.com, 6Post.com, 7Post.com, XBimmers.com logo and trademark are properties of BIMMERPOST