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      09-22-2021, 01:26 PM   #45
heavyD^2
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Speaking of being fooled, it will take more than a hot take headline to fool me into watching another Scotty Kilmer video. The guy is a blowhard.
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      09-22-2021, 02:01 PM   #46
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Originally Posted by heavyD^2 View Post
Speaking of being fooled, it will take more than a hot take headline to fool me into watching another Scotty Kilmer video. The guy is a blowhard.
It's all about views. He doesn't care about the quality of his content.
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      09-22-2021, 02:34 PM   #47
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Originally Posted by hellrotm View Post
Agree, although I don't have a guess on % share of the market. But we are very far from where infrastructure needs to be for full adoption. Also solid state battery tech is needed for EV to go mainstream. Some say we are a good decade from solid state batteries being ready for automotive application. 2030 is optimistic for sure. For the brands that have stated they will be full EV by 2030, they will be all competing for a still small portion of the vehicle market.
Toyota and VW are expected to come out with working SSB prototypes within the year and production vehicles to follow shortly, significantly before 2030.
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      09-22-2021, 02:58 PM   #48
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Originally Posted by JamesNoBrakes View Post
Toyota and VW are expected to come out with working SSB prototypes within the year and production vehicles to follow shortly, significantly before 2030.
Oh the cars will be ready, that I have no doubt. I just don't think people will be able to afford them and we won't have enoogh public chargers and governments will need to push things back 5 or 10 years.
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      09-22-2021, 03:03 PM   #49
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Originally Posted by Alfisti View Post
Leasing is one of the all time great myths, around here anyways. I owned a used X3 5 years old, so had the water pump failure, needed rotors/pads etc and still, even counting depreciation, my monthly cost to own was a SOLID $250 month less than a lease on the same vehicle over 3 years.

I have no issue with people leasing, we are free to make the choice, but this narrative that it is cheaper than repairing a used german car is not true.
My wife's 430i Gran Coupe lease is only $305 a month. That is with a $50k MSRP and only first month DAS. What was the payment on the X3 lease you are using in your example? The key to making a lease work is to get a great deal. It sounds obvious, but leases are not as straightforward as a purchase and as a result, a lot of people overpay.
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      09-22-2021, 03:22 PM   #50
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We had the X3 with the big engine, i just ran it through the bmw build thingy and only added one option for $3800 (roof etc).

Even the smaller engine is well over $900 a month.

Now, you won't pay that, you will negotiate down but there $300 leases you people down there talk about, not gonna get you a corolla.

Monthly Lease Payment
Monthly Lease Payment: Amount owing for one payment transaction
$1,207
Province
Province: Selected Province.
Ontario
Term
Term: Duration of agreement
48 months
Interest Rate
Interest Rate: Annual percentage rate being charged as interest.
3.99 %
Residual Value
Residual Value: Anticipated value of the vehicle at maturity of agreement.
$30,549
Down Payment
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$0
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Trade-in Value: Value of your trade-in vehicle after payment of amounts owing, if any.
$0
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16,000 km
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Yes
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Yes
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$ 139
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$66,250
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$4,795
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$2,480
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$0
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$73,525
Security Deposit
$1,207
First Scheduled Payment
$1,207
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      09-22-2021, 06:55 PM   #51
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I took "around here" to mean the BMW forum. I see now that you mean in Canada.
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      09-22-2021, 10:32 PM   #52
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JamesNoBrakes View Post
Toyota and VW are expected to come out with working SSB prototypes within the year and production vehicles to follow shortly, significantly before 2030.
Not from what I have read. Toyota has been testing them, but they have been running into some hurdles like short life cycle and battery performance in BEV testing. Toyota has recently said solid state batteries will go in hybrids first, where these issues are minimized. Actually read an article a few days ago Ford and BMW will begin solid state pilot production in 2022. Later that year Ford/BMW should get hands on cells to test in automotive applications. Earliest market launch later in the decade. Solid state batteries are coming to BEV's, but years away. I would be very surprised if we see them in the majority of EV's before 2030.

Last edited by hellrotm; 09-22-2021 at 10:49 PM..
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      09-23-2021, 05:35 AM   #53
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Originally Posted by Alfisti View Post
Yeah like i said, each to his own but I see comments that a new car, especially leased, is cheaper than an old one due to repairs. It's simply not sans catastrophic engine failure really.
The only way to judge the economics of owning (i.e. using) a car is the cost-per-mile. Cost per-month, cost per-year, is irrelevant. It is the total dollars you paid to buy the car and operate it. The operational costs are fuel, maintenance and repair. The longer you own the car and amortize the purchase price* of the total miles driven is better economically. People who own a car for 2 - 3 years then trade in for a new car pay over $1.00 per mile. People like me who keep their cars for decades and drive them to hundreds of thousands of miles pay less than $0.50 per mile. Measuring the cost per-mile is the only metric that is standard across any car brand, car type, and drivetrain. Most people do not understand how much they pay per mile to drive their car. Most people don't keep the cost records to make an evaluation.

* purchase price is the price of the car when purchased minus the price of the car when you sell it, or get paid by the insurance company if it is totaled.
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      09-23-2021, 07:42 AM   #54
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Not really in this instance and for the purposes of this argument. I am doing the same number of miles regardless so miles are irrelevant. So over three years my monthly cost to lease would have been well over $800 and used was around $500.
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      09-23-2021, 01:57 PM   #55
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I can't stand Scotty Kilmer. That is all.
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      09-23-2021, 03:32 PM   #56
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hellrotm View Post
Not from what I have read. Toyota has been testing them, but they have been running into some hurdles like short life cycle and battery performance in BEV testing. Toyota has recently said solid state batteries will go in hybrids first, where these issues are minimized. Actually read an article a few days ago Ford and BMW will begin solid state pilot production in 2022. Later that year Ford/BMW should get hands on cells to test in automotive applications. Earliest market launch later in the decade. Solid state batteries are coming to BEV's, but years away. I would be very surprised if we see them in the majority of EV's before 2030.
Toyota is putting the batteries in the hybrids first because they haven't any BEVs to sell nor the experience building them. That is why Toyota has been lobbying so hard against BEVs.
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      09-24-2021, 12:42 AM   #57
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SteveinArizona View Post
Toyota is putting the batteries in the hybrids first because they haven't any BEVs to sell nor the experience building them. That is why Toyota has been lobbying so hard against BEVs.
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If you need a refresher on why the solid-state battery is so important—potentially a game-changer in the EV space—you can read this primer. But there are kinks to iron out. The solid electrolyte material surrounding the battery cells has, in Toyota's testing regime, developed gaps that affect battery performance and service life when utilized in battery electric vehicles (BEVs). That's why, at least initially, Toyota will implement the tech in hybrids (HEVs), where the issue is less of a concern, while simultaneously developing it further for BEVs down the road.
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      09-24-2021, 08:10 AM   #58
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hellrotm View Post
C&D
Toyota doing a rather poor effort at pretending the reason isn't that it can't currently compete in the space.

https://electrek.co/2019/10/31/toyot...ing-fleet-mpg/

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2021/07...he-transition/

But it is being criticized by investors so it is pretending:

https://www.reuters.com/business/aut...at-2021-04-19/
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      09-24-2021, 09:35 AM   #59
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Originally Posted by Mason Hatcher View Post
It's all about views. He doesn't care about the quality of his content.
That goes for anyone on social media, YouTube, etc.
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      09-27-2021, 05:06 AM   #60
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Lease is often be more expensive, just because there are more intermediaries (banks, dealers, insurances, etc..)...
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      09-27-2021, 06:10 AM   #61
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Quote:
Originally Posted by heavyD^2 View Post
Speaking of being fooled, it will take more than a hot take headline to fool me into watching another Scotty Kilmer video. The guy is a blowhard.
He's a fast talker alright and you have to keep up with him as he squeezes his content into a time frame,I find he offers good advice for many things a lot of us take for granted.
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      10-04-2021, 03:55 AM   #62
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To get back on track with EV, I posted this to my fb wall not long ago. Not sure if I figured everything correctly...

I was just reading that Europe is pushing for all new vehicles to be EV (electric vehicles) by 2035, and how "on-track" Euro manufactures are currently to meet that deadline. I've always been on the fence for EV, I love me some horsepower, but EV has its advantages and can create amazing low end torque. So I decided to start doing some reading about EV sales and lithium mining. Now I’m no expert, and my math may be off, but here is what I found:

Current global new vehicle sales hover around 70 million each year. 2020 saw about 64 million sales, which is lower than usual due to the pandemic. About 4% of sales in 2020 were EV with sales at around 3 million. It is estimated that by 2030, EV sales will make up around 31% of all new vehicle sales globally. If we keep all new vehicle sales at 70 million, that means 21,700,000 new EV sales in 2030. That's in increase of just over 2 million EV sales per year for the next 9-10 years.

In 2020, lithium mines produced about 82,000 metric tons of lithium, roughly 30,000 tons of that went to EV batteries. Tesla, for example, uses about 10 kilograms of lithium per vehicle. If we use that number across the board for all EV batteries, that means by year 2030 we will require around 217,000 metric tons of lithium for just EV sales. That's an increase of 13,500 tons per year just for vehicles. If we add 50,000 tons as an estimate for other devices (which was the difference in 2020), that puts us at 267,000 metric tons of lithium to mine in 2030. An increase of 18,500 tons per year. In 2015 the US estimated the world has about 365 years' worth of lithium reserve using 2015 rate of 37,000 metric tons per year. We are now at 82,000 tons in 2020-21. We have already doubled our lithium mining in just 5 years. If estimates are correct for 2030, we will reduce our lithium reserves to 50 years supply, but that's only at 31% of vehicle sales being EV. The goal is 100% EV sales eventually, and if it continues to rise at the rate it is expected to, we will deplete out lithium supply in less than 30 years.

“But we can recycle lithium batteries”. Yes, we can, but most countries only see about 2-3% of those batteries actually get recycled. The US and Europe sees about 5% get recycled. Batteries are recycled by melting them down and stripping the precious metals away from everything else, which requires a lot of heat (energy) and releases vapors and gases, and right now recycling costs more than mining for new lithium so it’s not a “priority” of battery manufactures because it isn’t cost effective.

Lithium mines are not exactly environmentally friendly either, and the bi-product of lithium mining is believed to cause environmental damage to the surrounding area, as farmers in some countries have seen significant crop damage near lithium mines, but these are countries that don’t care and can’t be bothered to do tests and studies to see if the mining is indeed causing these damages.

So basically, our solution to cutting emissions and the need to drill for oil before we run out of oil is already on an accelerated track to becoming another depleted resource within our lifetime, and it’s potentially bad for the environment in other ways. But hey, Greta will be happy. I did find that they are developing new types of batteries that are supposed to be overall better for the environment, but they haven’t came up with anything solid yet.
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      10-04-2021, 10:31 AM   #63
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Originally Posted by ///d View Post
To get back on track with EV, I posted this to my fb wall not long ago. Not sure if I figured everything correctly...

I was just reading that Europe is pushing for all new vehicles to be EV (electric vehicles) by 2035, and how "on-track" Euro manufactures are currently to meet that deadline. I've always been on the fence for EV, I love me some horsepower, but EV has its advantages and can create amazing low end torque. So I decided to start doing some reading about EV sales and lithium mining. Now I’m no expert, and my math may be off, but here is what I found:

Current global new vehicle sales hover around 70 million each year. 2020 saw about 64 million sales, which is lower than usual due to the pandemic. About 4% of sales in 2020 were EV with sales at around 3 million. It is estimated that by 2030, EV sales will make up around 31% of all new vehicle sales globally. If we keep all new vehicle sales at 70 million, that means 21,700,000 new EV sales in 2030. That's in increase of just over 2 million EV sales per year for the next 9-10 years.

In 2020, lithium mines produced about 82,000 metric tons of lithium, roughly 30,000 tons of that went to EV batteries. Tesla, for example, uses about 10 kilograms of lithium per vehicle. If we use that number across the board for all EV batteries, that means by year 2030 we will require around 217,000 metric tons of lithium for just EV sales. That's an increase of 13,500 tons per year just for vehicles. If we add 50,000 tons as an estimate for other devices (which was the difference in 2020), that puts us at 267,000 metric tons of lithium to mine in 2030. An increase of 18,500 tons per year. In 2015 the US estimated the world has about 365 years' worth of lithium reserve using 2015 rate of 37,000 metric tons per year. We are now at 82,000 tons in 2020-21. We have already doubled our lithium mining in just 5 years. If estimates are correct for 2030, we will reduce our lithium reserves to 50 years supply, but that's only at 31% of vehicle sales being EV. The goal is 100% EV sales eventually, and if it continues to rise at the rate it is expected to, we will deplete out lithium supply in less than 30 years.

“But we can recycle lithium batteries”. Yes, we can, but most countries only see about 2-3% of those batteries actually get recycled. The US and Europe sees about 5% get recycled. Batteries are recycled by melting them down and stripping the precious metals away from everything else, which requires a lot of heat (energy) and releases vapors and gases, and right now recycling costs more than mining for new lithium so it’s not a “priority” of battery manufactures because it isn’t cost effective.

Lithium mines are not exactly environmentally friendly either, and the bi-product of lithium mining is believed to cause environmental damage to the surrounding area, as farmers in some countries have seen significant crop damage near lithium mines, but these are countries that don’t care and can’t be bothered to do tests and studies to see if the mining is indeed causing these damages.

So basically, our solution to cutting emissions and the need to drill for oil before we run out of oil is already on an accelerated track to becoming another depleted resource within our lifetime, and it’s potentially bad for the environment in other ways. But hey, Greta will be happy. I did find that they are developing new types of batteries that are supposed to be overall better for the environment, but they haven’t came up with anything solid yet.

Lithium is not the end-state of EV battery development.
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      10-04-2021, 10:49 AM   #64
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SteveinArizona View Post
Toyota doing a rather poor effort at pretending the reason isn't that it can't currently compete in the space.

https://electrek.co/2019/10/31/toyot...ing-fleet-mpg/

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2021/07...he-transition/

But it is being criticized by investors so it is pretending:

https://www.reuters.com/business/aut...at-2021-04-19/
Years of carryover drivetrains have caught up to Toyota. Easy to profit and stay reliable when you keep recycling drivetrains designed decades ago.
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      10-04-2021, 11:00 AM   #65
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      10-05-2021, 12:27 AM   #66
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Efthreeoh View Post
Lithium is not the end-state of EV battery development.
No its not, but as of July when I wrote this there wasn't anything else out there ready for production to replace Li for vehicles. There are things in development, so then the question is how easy will it be to use any new battery tech with EV? Will manufactures be able to easily make the switch, or will they have to redesign everything?
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