Stock market tips and experiences

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by Inspired

I'll give it a shot but I'm more of a day trader not a swing trader.

1) JCP (short)
2) BBRY long
3) YELP long

Are you going by closing prices?

[Inspired]

Originally Posted by Vanity

Are you going by closing prices?

yup

JCP $12.76
BBRY $10.30
YELP $51.67

I didn't put a lot of thought into this. Just opened a few charts and saw that the daily looks good and picked it.

[F1Venom]

Could the SPX be forming a head and shoulder pattern?
The right shoulder is yet to be made ~1675.
Daily chart:

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by F1Venom

Could the SPX be forming a head and shoulder pattern?
The right shoulder is yet to be made ~1675.
Daily chart:

That doesn't look like a typical H&S to me. Not unless that head went down to touch the neckline at 1560, rallied to 1675, and then you believed the market would sell off past 1560 again.

[F1Venom]

Originally Posted by Vanity

That doesn't look like a typical H&S to me. Not unless that head went down to touch the neckline at 1560, rallied to 1675, and then you believed the market would sell off past 1560 again.

I meant that we continue declining until 1560, then bounce and form a right shoulder at 1675. Then go sub 1500 to complete the H&S.

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by F1Venom

I meant that we continue declining until 1560, then bounce and form a right shoulder at 1675. Then go sub 1500 to complete the H&S.

I'm personally betting on us making a move from 1630 to 1670+. I don't see any irrationality in $VIX. I see a lot of irrationality in people though. Everybody and their dog is betting on <1600 on SPX. Pain trade is up. War is good.

We've bombed Iraq, and rallied. We've bombed Egypt, and rallied. We've bombed Libya, and rallied. WWII, rallied. Syria, in context, has far less "disaster contagion" than past war events.

GDP Q412 was 0.4%. Now it's 2.5% for Q213. (Mind you we did change the calculation method).

I think this is all a great ST - IT discount. Just my IMO though. I think everyone should have tight stops on their trades ATM.

[RandomHero]

Originally Posted by Inspired

I'll give it a shot but I'm more of a day trader not a swing trader.

1) JCP (short)
2) BBRY long
3) YELP long

I'm not an equity trader by any means. I also didn't see this until this morning so I apologize. It's for fun more than anything.

My three:
As of 9:27am
ARNA- Arena Pharmaceuticals
WDC- Western Digital
TFM- The Fresh Market

You're welcome to adjust your selections. We'll agree to start at the closing prices at the end of today 8/29 since I didn't see any interest until this morning.

[mact3333]

we are headed down as I previously noted...this is a ST-IT move...we still have marginal new highs to make later but not just yet...wouldnt surprise me to see selloff accelerate right before close and into next week.

I am lightened up now.

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by mact3333

we are headed down as I previously noted...this is a ST-IT move...we still have marginal new highs to make later but not just yet...wouldnt surprise me to see selloff accelerate right before close and into next week.

I am lightened up now.

VIX Futures had a muted response to that -8 point move. No one bought protection, I think that's because ~1630 is a ST-IT bottom.

Still long and going over weekend, should be an interesting Tuesday.

[mact3333]

I have few long positions for now...but short ES now...we are headed down...mkt will look for an excuse like Syria to accelerate downside move...think next 2-4 wks will be the downside move.

[Vanity]

#timestamped Aug, 27th.

Originally Posted by Vanity

Expecting this to resolve itself by next week. Hit 1630 in a dramatic fashion. Shorting the VIX now. Expecting it to remake a move back down to 12's. we shall see.

Originally Posted by Vanity

VIX Futures had a muted response to that -8 point move. No one bought protection, I think that's because ~1630 is a ST-IT bottom.

Still long and going over weekend, should be an interesting Tuesday.

Originally Posted by Vanity

I'm personally betting on us making a move from 1630 to 1670+. I don't see any irrationality in $VIX. I see a lot of irrationality in people though. Everybody and their dog is betting on <1600 on SPX. Pain trade is up. War is good.

We've bombed Iraq, and rallied. We've bombed Egypt, and rallied. We've bombed Libya, and rallied. WWII, rallied. Syria, in context, has far less "disaster contagion" than past war events.

GDP Q412 was 0.4%. Now it's 2.5% for Q213. (Mind you we did change the calculation method).

I think this is all a great ST - IT discount. Just my IMO though. I think everyone should have tight stops on their trades ATM.

If we break 1650 resistance, we will close 1660 gap and then very likely to close 1680 gap as well.

[F1Venom]

I'm just hoping to enter short in the beginning of the upcoming bear market. I feel like I can make a small fortune with only a few grand in SPX puts which are very far OTM (1000) and expire Dec. 2014.

[PSUSMU]

Happy NOK long shareholder here. In at $3, out at $5.45.

[mact3333]

once ES breaks below 1630 we will accelerate downwards as planned....Syria as a good excuse anyone...nice morning fakeout....

[Vanity]

SPX move down today saw a spike in $VIX back to Friday levels. But VIX futures did not follow. First time in this risk off this has occurred. VIX futures appear to be fading the fear now. We should potentially see a vol-selling event by week close. Bullish SPX. Short VIX still. Still looking for 1-2 gap closes. I should point out that SPX Implied Vol (that is, what $VIX should be priced at for actual vol price movements of the SPX) is at 11% while $VIX is at 17%. Huge huge premiums built in right now cause of Syria, etc. but now futures are fading the premium.

Readjusted my short VIX position this morning with a sell, then picked it back up later in the day.

[r0wr]

Originally Posted by F1Venom

I'm just hoping to enter short in the beginning of the upcoming bear market. I feel like I can make a small fortune with only a few grand in SPX puts which are very far OTM (1000) and expire Dec. 2014.

Lol that's interesting

[F1Venom]

I'm kind of new to trading, but wouldn't buying some 1000 strike SPX puts which expire Dec. 2014 while the SPX is 17xx yield several hundred thousand percent gains if these puts ever go ITM?

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by F1Venom

I'm kind of new to trading, but wouldn't buying some 1000 strike SPX puts which expire Dec. 2014 while the SPX is 17xx yield several hundred thousand percent gains if these puts ever go ITM?

If its too good to be true, it probably is. Factor in the time decay on those options over 365 days + the remaining quarter of 2013. I suppose they'd be worthless by then, but I don't trade options so there's probably somewhere here who can give you a better idea on SPX options.

[gatorfast]

Unless you are a sophisticated investor, dont mess with options. You may get lucky once in a while but 90% of the time you will get burned.

[RandomHero]

Originally Posted by gatorfast

Unless you are a sophisticated investor, dont mess with options. You may get lucky once in a while but 90% of the time you will get burned.

That's a blanket statement and simply untrue.

There are several options strategies that can actually help to DECREASE your risk.

[scorcherjf]

Originally Posted by F1Venom

I'm kind of new to trading, but wouldn't buying some 1000 strike SPX puts which expire Dec. 2014 while the SPX is 17xx yield several hundred thousand percent gains if these puts ever go ITM?

Those options are trading at $12.20 right now per contract so to break even the SPX would have to be around 987 at expiration. Personally I think the probability of this is pretty low but since this date is so far away, volatility levels price it in at the current price (which is mostly done using a Black-Scholes approx). Honestly buying this contract would usually be for some catastrophic long-term hedging and not really a single position seeking to make a profit... I mean it's over a year away lol. Anyway, read up on how option pricing is (usually) done and the different strategies (spreads, straddles, strangles, condors, etc.) and then you can make a decision. You need to learn how the greeks work (delta, gamma, theta, rho) and how it affects your position as the underlying (SPX) changes.

[Vanity]

Over SPX 1651 and we take out the gap in 1660's. from there we will see if there is enough momentum left to fill 1680's gap. Volume these last couple days has been increasing as we move to the upside.