Official Tesla Talk Thread **No Politics**

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by KRS_SN

https://www.autoexpress.co.uk/opinio...o-longer-given

Tesla will have real competition from Ford for those who primarily charge at home ...

Anyone who uses a charger network, not so much - lots of youtubes out there from the US and UK of people using Fords with a pretty shitty experience

But even more interesting is, Fords work easier and faster on VW's charging network than VWs do!


As of now, I'd say the the top two EV brands are Tesla and Porsche (and probably soon Audi), with Tesla being able to stretch its brand down to even the $25k range which Porsche will rely on VW to do, but VW doesn't yet have the skills to do.

(prediction: ID.3/4 - as they are today - will not be a challenge to Tesla like the Mach-E on the lower end, and Porsche/Audi on the higher end)

[KRS_SN]

tesla is mainstream now... Porsche is niche.
In usual Porsche style they produced a car(taycan) that was much more expensive than an equivalent tesla which performed a bit better. In the real world most premium but non niche manufacturers (like bmw not volkswagen) will be the real competitors.

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by KRS_SN

tesla is mainstream now... Porsche is niche.

That was true in the ICE world, I think all bets are off as the industry pivots to EVs.

An example is Apple:
Back when a home PC was rare and an extension of the work PC, Win-tel was the winning platform ... but when costs fell and the internet normalized what one could do on a PC, Apple's crazy looking orange or green iMacs made comeback that transformed into phones/tablets and all but killed win-tel's home advantage. Microsoft became the old guy brand ... and the biggest branding magic trick is: Apple not only captured the high-end niche market but has been able to extend that brand down to the medium priced market too!

Sounds a lot like Tesla: a brand build on a new platform, timed to a market pivot, and able to extend down to the mid-priced market.

Brand breadth - high price to low price - is the hallmark of a good tech brand, something legacy brands didn't have. (Example: Harley-Davidson, Ford, Rolex, Tiffany's, Goldman Sachs, VW!, et al)

Tesla has shown it can definitely stretch to mid-priced (M3/Y), but not the lower priced VW range ... who's going to get that market? Ford? VW? I'm a bit skeptical Tesla will ...

Porsche has been absolutely on fire lately, totally nailing both their products and their market. The Macan has proven that, in SUVs, Porsche can stretch down to mid-priced ... their new Taycan Cross Turismo and Macan EV has the potential take the premium market, and their Audi equivalents the mid-priced market.

Porsche is going after the right customer with the right marketing - if they win Gen-Xers with stuff like this:

Porsche may find out their brand is more like Tesla and vehicles like the Macan EV can compete and win in the mid-priced market at high scale ... in short, if I was a bettin' man, I'd say the PROFIT battle will be between Tesla and Porsche with Ford and VW battling for the high volume low-priced market.

[KRS_SN]

porsche survived by manufacturing non true porsches ie cayenne and macans that I give them credit for. Tesla isn't facing a rosy future
https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...pitalist-clown

[Efthreeoh]

Originally Posted by KRS_SN

porsche survived by manufacturing non true porsches ie cayenne and macans that I give them credit for. Tesla isn't facing a rosy future
https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...pitalist-clown

Just anti-capitalist gibberish. Same article content written about Henry Ford circa 1927. Or any other famous industrialist.

[KRS_SN]

https://www.bmwblog.com/2021/03/21/b...ord-in-norway/

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by KRS_SN;27370229[url

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/mar/20/elon-musk-declared-himself-technoking-hes-just-a-hyper-capitalist-clown[/url]

Yeah, geezus, what the hell was that garbage?

Elon loves to fuck with the SEC and they deserve it ... I get why this stuff is catnip for Elon-haters but it's a pretty funny troll. Here's the actual SEC filing:

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by KRS_SN

https://www.bmwblog.com/2021/03/21/b...ord-in-norway/

This is surprising for such an ugly car, though it is Norway so I guess we gotta take it with a grain of salt ... nevertheless, positive (and surprising) showing for BMW.

I have a feeling the rest of the World won't be so kind on the styling, but we'll see!

[Efthreeoh]

Originally Posted by GrussGott

Yeah, geezus, what the hell was that garbage?

Elon loves to fuck with the SEC and they deserve it ... I get why this stuff is catnip for Elon-haters but it's a pretty funny troll. Here's the actual SEC filing:

And by famous, I mean successful. I just can't stand anti-capitalism crap like that when the very medium the author is using to spew his garbage is the epitome of a capitalistic economic system.

Anyway...

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by Efthreeoh

the very medium the author is using to spew his garbage is the epitome of a capitalistic economic system

Though it's also a early indicator of the future: all those who loved Elon will grow to hate him ... and all those who hated him will grow to love him.

You read it here first.

[KRS_SN]

Originally Posted by Efthreeoh

And by famous, I mean successful. I just can't stand anti-capitalism crap like that when the very medium the author is using to spew his garbage is the epitome of a capitalistic economic system.

Anyway...

The author writes in one of the most popular newspapers read by millions. I have no problem reading it.

[KRS_SN]

Originally Posted by GrussGott

Though it's also a early indicator of the future: all those who loved Elon will grow to hate him ... and all those who hated him will grow to love him.

You read it here first.

and the earth is flat.

[Efthreeoh]

Originally Posted by KRS_SN

The author writes in one of the most popular newspapers read by millions. I have no problem reading it.

Tesla has customer orders to fill. It has every right to remain open to fulfill those orders for its products. Life comes with risks; people need to realize that. Musk runs a company that benefits its employees. They can work elsewhere if they see no benefit to working at Tesla.

[KRS_SN]

Originally Posted by Efthreeoh

Tesla has customer orders to fill. It has every right to remain open to fulfill those orders for its products. Life comes with risks; people need to realize that. Musk runs a company that benefits its employees. They can work elsewhere if they see no benefit to working at Tesla.

it was covid time. you cannot make exceptions for musk. If they did other businesses could ask for the same ? that he believes you should deserve special status doesn't sit right with me. It's almost like he found the right excuse to do what he originally wanted which is clever. zero allegiance.

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by KRS_SN

it was covid time. you cannot make exceptions for musk. If they did other businesses could ask for the same ? that he believes you should deserve special status doesn't sit right with me. It's almost like he found the right excuse to do what he originally wanted which is clever. zero allegiance.

Well, I live 20 min from the Tesla factory (so affected by the same county & state policies) and for context I'm a healthcare guy who masks up and will vax up; my experience with local business over the last year has been totally nonsensical & arbitrary with seemingly little thoughtfulness or creativity or even consistency for business type or time. On that issue I'm 100% with TSLA. I'd note, IMO, there can be no special status/exception if there is no defined status for more than a week and/or any status given is completely arbitrary.

Said differently, if you randomly give kids candy, and therefore deny others candy, and then tomorrow only black-haired kids get candy, and then the next day only kids with a birthday in March, etc it can't be said that any kid has special status.

By happenstance one kid gets candy every day and another never gets any, but never with any single reason why.

[GrussGott]

And for you investors out there, ARK has put out their latest TSLA valuation model for 2025 (based on 40,000 Monte Carlo simulations, which nerds can download here), and it's pretty interesting with lots to noodle / disagree with ...

First the numbers and model:




There's some assumptions like scaling constraints based on Wright's Law

Things I noticed are the 'Human-Driven Ride-Hail' revenue, insurance, etc.

Maybe the biggest thing is though, while there are things to quibble with, overall I find it hard to argue with.

[KRS_SN]

Originally Posted by GrussGott

Well, I live 20 min from the Tesla factory (so affected by the same county & state policies) and for context I'm a healthcare guy who masks up and will vax up; my experience with local business over the last year has been totally nonsensical & arbitrary with seemingly little thoughtfulness or creativity or even consistency for business type or time. On that issue I'm 100% with TSLA. I'd note, IMO, there can be no special status/exception if there is no defined status for more than a week and/or any status given is completely arbitrary.

Said differently, if you randomly give kids candy, and therefore deny others candy, and then tomorrow only black-haired kids get candy, and then the next day only kids with a birthday in March, etc it can't be said that any kid has special status.

By happenstance one kid gets candy every day and another never gets any, but never with any single reason why.

you know more about the ground situation there than I do. Was there any other car factory operating when his was closed? if no then his has to have been closed no.
Anyway I realise I'm guilty of inadvertently stepping into political territory/,pulled thread etc so will back off on this one.

[IllSic_Design]

Originally Posted by KRS_SN

you know more about the ground situation there than I do. Was there any other car factory operating when his was closed? if no then his has to have been closed no.
Anyway I realise I'm guilty of inadvertently stepping into political territory/,pulled thread etc so will back off on this one.

I'm pretty sure any business that is in the transportation industry(pretty sure cars fit with that) in CA could stay open. I work at a train manufacturing facility in Sac, CA and we were allowed to remain open as we are deemed an essential business

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by KRS_SN

you know more about the ground situation there than I do. Was there any other car factory operating when his was closed? if no then his has to have been closed no.
Anyway I realise I'm guilty of inadvertently stepping into political territory/,pulled thread etc so will back off on this one.

Logic and reason are assumed in your question ... Think of it more this way:

* Today, any business with windows is good
* Tomorrow, any business painted yellow is good
* Next day, any business with more than 3 doors is good
* Next day, ok 2 doors is good now, but you also have to have windows
* Next day, oops did we say "2 windows", that was a mistake, it's 3
* Next day, ok forget the doors & windows, any business open will be fined, but we won't enforce the fines
* Next day, did we say "any business"? That was wrong, only basket businesses

You get the idea.

[Efthreeoh]

Originally Posted by KRS_SN

it was covid time. you cannot make exceptions for musk. If they did other businesses could ask for the same ? that he believes you should deserve special status doesn't sit right with me. It's almost like he found the right excuse to do what he originally wanted which is clever. zero allegiance.

Why is it justified that healthcare employees, grocery employees, gas station clerks, electrical grid maintenance staff, toilet paper company employees, water filtration employees, infrastructure builders (you get the gist) HAVE to work to keep society functioning, yet office-bound number crunchers get to stay at home. What about the CEO's of those companies? Are they egotistical assholes like Musk?

LOL. That article was non-sensical gibberish.

[KRS_SN]

remember film Cameras we had for decades then we had them replaced by digital cameras for a decade or two which were more convenient and ultimately by Mobile phone cameras since then.
I worry that ice was the film camera ev is the digital camera and the final longer lasting effortless solution like mobile phone cameras is yet to arrive.

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by KRS_SN

remember film Cameras we had for decades then we had them replaced by digital cameras for a decade or two which were more convenient and ultimately by Mobile phone cameras since then.
I worry that ice was the film camera ev is the digital camera and the final longer lasting effortless solution like mobile phone cameras is yet to arrive.

It's all due to "bundling". Yup, digital cameras replaced film, so that's EV replacing ICE ... but your next step - DCs to phones - was 100% about bundling to eliminate individual purpose-built devices despite the diminishment of the individual devices ... and that didn't replace those devices, just some of them ...

That is, the bundled portable product (e.g., iPhone) replaced some individual devices like GPS, phone, camera, music player, movie player, gaming device, etc. by bundling them all together in one simple device that does all those things, albeit less well than a dedicated device.

So, for example, I still have a handheld digital camera with a huge sensor and lens that takes photos my phone could never match, though I don't carry it with me always so the phone is more convenient for everyday use. BUT when I travel, I almost ALWAYS have my DSLR or mirrorless handy.

The key there is convenience - so applying that back to cars, what's more convenient than a car that could be an everyday thing? Automated taxis and mobility services! ... however the # of places and times that's true may turn out to be WAY less than replacing a mirrorless with a phone. E.g., for urban living, maybe, but many people still choose to have a car for freedom/emotional/recreational/family reasons - in other words, there's no everyday "bundle" replacement for the car.


That said, one could argue level 5 autonomous vehicles bundle mobility and an operating system, i.e., mobility+iPhone ... and CLEARLY this is where Apple wants things to go because they want your eyeballs & attention during travel, but I'm a bear on AD at least the next 5 years and probably 10 years or more.