09-09-2022, 08:42 AM | #288 | |
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and when they don't get it done in time ? we've had more than 13 years already to see this was coming, and still aren't ready. Never mind the future, look to the past. I don't think that will be changed with a mandate, though it sure would be nice to think that such things work. |
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09-09-2022, 08:47 AM | #289 | |
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09-09-2022, 09:17 AM | #290 |
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I don't think many outside of the automotive manufacturing world fully grasp how much supply (on the vehicle side) is going to outstrip demand (be it because of consumer interest or lagging infrastructure) in the next 5-8 years. We are going to have a plethora of EV choices, but it won't mean anything if no one buys them. The agreement that has been made behind closed doors between OEMs and policy makers is "We'll create the demand, you just handle the supply". Which is an incredibly slippery slope when you're talking about technology that is still in a huge state of churn. Throw in the most tumultuous global energy crisis, spurred by Russia-Ukraine, since the 70's and we are really in uncharted territory here from a policy-making standpoint.
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09-09-2022, 11:14 AM | #291 |
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No, but everyone who has solar already understands that it doesn't work at night and you need batteries. Grid-level storage is undoubtedly going to happen. No one is saying it's going to happen tomorrow. Repeating that it's dark at night makes me question if you're an actual engineer or what.
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09-09-2022, 11:26 AM | #292 | |
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The "somebody else" solution ? I repeat it because people point out the growth in solar as the solution to where these watts will come from, but they never seem to mention how they plan to get those solar watts into their cars when it's dark. Like they see the solar part of the gird like a bucket of water, you can just tap it whenever you want to. that if I put $20 of green power into the grid in the day, I can remove that same $20 green energy at night. It's more like a faucet that only flows in daylight. |
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09-09-2022, 11:36 AM | #293 | ||
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Did you not read anything written? Also: https://www.wsj.com/articles/battery...id-11640082783 Quote:
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09-09-2022, 11:54 AM | #294 |
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We will make them, and the technology to recycle more of them will progress.
Demand won't be binary. It will grow over the next 13 years as car manufacturers will want to be well into the EV game by 2035 instead of debuting entire fleets in one year. As demand increases, supply will adapt to take advantage. Alternatives like home solar panels will become more widespread, so that will also help. This kind of proves my point though, doesn't it? We've seen it coming, but we aren't close to ready. Vague ideas weren't enough, it's legislation like this that makes it tangible.
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09-09-2022, 12:03 PM | #295 | |
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There are also issues like this that put pressure on the system (from your own article): California is racing to secure power to make up for the impending closure of several gas-fired power plants as well as a nuclear facility that provides nearly 10% of the electricity generated in the state. They are manufacturing a crisis so they can manage-by-crisis. Cut the supply and mandate new load, make tax payers suffer and have them pay to fix the crisis. I'm glad I don't live there. |
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09-09-2022, 12:11 PM | #296 | |
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If someone on the supply side said we weren't ready to do what the demand side wants, then what?
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E85 was supposed to be a good idea and really does reduce C02 emissions. It was put into the market decades ago, and I still can't buy it where I live. I expect (hope) the same will happen here, the ideas/goals will got rolled back to align with reality. |
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09-09-2022, 12:23 PM | #297 |
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They mainly come from China currently. The stand alone batteries last about 20 years before the battery degradation is just too much. EV batteries are worse in that you can't really plot a true degradation curve you have so make a bajillion assumptions that you don't have to make with standalone storage.
and when they are done they kind of suck to recycle: https://blog.ucsusa.org/jessica-dunn...ed%20on%20size. Source: I sell Solar and battery systems that connect to the grid at the Utility level. Watching this discission is amusing because some people get it and others don't have a clue.
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09-09-2022, 12:48 PM | #299 |
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Horrifically expensive imo. A 500kW 2 hour battery is Roughly 450k delivered to the states from China. Issue is 2 hour batteries meh. You really need at least 4 hours of battery to be useful. Otherwise all of your battery power is used up in 2 hours. A 4 hour battery is twice as large. The cells are what is expensive. The kicker is you don't want to leave a battery fully discharged, you want an ASC or Average State of Charge above 50% for degradation reasons. So you have to charge that battery back up from the grid because there is now no solar.
A 500kW 4 hour battery is SMALL in terms of really helping the grid. You need tons of them to even make a dent.
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09-09-2022, 12:57 PM | #300 | |
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that's not how solar works... I have a 27 panel system that usual outproduces what I use and get a credit from SoCal Edison every month, but in the summer running AC all day and night, I will use more than it produces and have a bill...Charging an electric car in the day or night doesn't really matter with Solar ...I typically will have either a $50 credit or bill at the end of the year from Edison when all is said in done..The battery is typically only used for storing power and used during power outages. I don't have an EV, but not gonna freak out if all new cars are EV by 2035 like most car companies have already said to be planning on doing or make a big deal about California or the other 17 states that have already said to be doing the same thing....It's not like all the ICE vehicles will be sent to the crusher at 11:59 on 12/31/34 It's not like it is tomorrow....they have 13 years to work on getting it figured out, if they don't it will most likely be pushed back. |
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09-09-2022, 01:16 PM | #301 | ||
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Ideally, the system is calibrated so that the energy captured during the day and stored in your batter is used at night and augmented with grid sourced power, and then replenished the next dar. This will reduce grid load further at night. For homes not equipped with batteries, excess solar power captured during the day is sent back to the grid, generating credits for the household, and reducing expenses and grid load at the time. However, it will not reduce load at night when there is no solar power to capture. Ideally, the additional load to the grid for those without batteries are offset, even if only partially, by those with batteries. The advantage of those with batteries would be cost. Quote:
With faster and faster charging times and an increase in charging stations, even those who live in apartments with limited capabilities to charge overnight, will be able to visit a charging station and recharge in minutes. Enough for a few days commute. Food for thought: 13 years ago the Tesla Roaster was unveiled. The EV landscape was sparse. There were no chargers anywhere, because there were no cars. An hour of charging added 56 miles of range with the available charging options at the time. With charging options available today, you can get 340 miles in thirty minutes.
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09-09-2022, 01:40 PM | #302 | |
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You want to be able to put 300 miles into your EV? your power wall needs to have more than 300 mils of charge stored in it. Only need 30 miles of charge? get a small battery with 30+ miles storage and a smaller solar plant, and know you can never charge more than 30 miles a day from it. Want to go on a 300 mile trip? no problem! just don't drive for 10 days and you'll be all charged up. Unless you are counting on the grid to make up the difference. |
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09-09-2022, 03:03 PM | #303 | ||
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Ex: Your total home battery capacity is around 26 kwh (two battery cells). Lets say your EV has a 60 kwh battery. Your EV battery, in this case, is bigger than your total home battery cell capacity. However, you only drove 50 miles that day which I believe is about 12 kwh. Your home battery would only use 12 kwh to charge your EV, and use the remaining 14 kwh to power your home. Quote:
Remember, you aren't always using all your captured solar energy. At a given time, you will use much less, sometimes much more, which is why selling back to the grid or charging a battery is a good system. Of course you are going to use the grid to make up the difference if your use exceeds solar capacity. I never suggested otherwise. The solar panels and battery, however, reduce overall load considerably, and hopefully you've given to the grid almost as much or more as you have taken (remember that 10% extra)
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09-09-2022, 04:08 PM | #304 | ||
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It's like arguing I only use my electric can opener in my kitchen, so I can use 20 gauge wire and a 3 amp breaker. Or I have a 1500 Watt microwave, but I only run it for 6 minutes at a time, so I only need 150 watthours of supply. Systems has to be designed for and prepared to supply maximum/peak rating, and under continuous load, they need to be de-rated. Quote:
It wasn't' that long ago that wind generation in Texas exceeded demand and producers were paid negative $ (charged) for dumping power into the grid. Sometimes the grid can't take it, and other times it has little to spare. This will get worse with unstable renewables added to the portfolio. Batteries will help, but they are way behind the curve. |
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09-09-2022, 04:32 PM | #305 | ||||||||
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09-09-2022, 05:01 PM | #306 | ||||||
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https://bgr.com/tech/22000-smart-the...rking-outrage/ coming to a smart grid near you ... Quote:
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09-09-2022, 06:53 PM | #307 | ||||||
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However, read the article: Quote:
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If you are consuming when everyone else is consuming, how is that different with or without solar panels? They still help. With batteries, they help even more. Solar seems to be a good way to help curb the added demand that EV's will bring. Not sure what argument you are making here. Are you saying we shouldn't be using solar because of those few times that the grid doesn't need power? Doesn't really make sense to me.
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09-09-2022, 07:31 PM | #308 | ||
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Remember, you put them in office and expect "somebody will solve the problem" because demand = more supply. Guess what tools they already have in their tool box to load balance when demand outstrips supply... FYI, they are shutting off power in large areas around me today to mitigate fire risk (wind storm). Public policy has shifted and they will do whatever they feel is best for the big picture. I personally agree with this, but it sure is a new world out there. In all my 49 years here, it's never happened before. And no, nobody that lost power near me today opted in to this, or got a vote. |
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