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      11-20-2018, 09:05 AM   #50
qba335i
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BayMoWe335 View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by qba335i View Post
That is NOT a good financial advice.

1) you should max out 401k contribution. Currently 18,500.

2) you should have a diversified portfolio - that includes equities (stocks/mutual funds/ETFs), bonds, alternatives (real estate and commodities) and cash. Once you have more assets you can start adding private equity and hedge funds. Management fee vs product fee - know the difference and know what you get.

3) there is a benefit of having a portfolio manager (don't confuse with a sales oriented financial advisor who used to sell cars) as he will be able to design an optimal portfolio, monitor it and do tactical shifts. Most people don't have the skill, knowledge and time to manage money plus they make irrational decisions.

4) everyone is a star/professional investor in a bull market. The true investing starts when the market starts moving in the opposite direction.


OP: what is your annualized 1,3,5 year return? Any risk metrics? How did you do in 2008-2009?


Disclaimer: I work in the investment field.
Portfolio managers are worthless averaged out. They are as good at picking stocks or making “tactical shifts” as a monkey. You just don’t need them.

Bonds are a stupid investment for anyone with at least a 10 year horizon.

When the market turns lower, no one is good in general. The best advice is to keep buying.

Agreed on max 401K.
Portfolio manager (PM) controls the asset allocation (not only stock selection) And asset allocation drives the returns. As you know the industry is going away from individual stocks towards index mutual funds/etfs. The goals driven investing goes a step further and manages goals/needs vs expected returns.

Bonds serve a purpose. They reduce the overall volatility of the portfolio, provide current income and can be used as portfolio reserve.

When the market turns down (like 2008) you see the benefits of diversification. Bonds returned ~5%, gold ~5.5% and cash ~1.8% (vs -53% Emerging markets or -37% US equities). In theory this seems pretty straightforward to keep buying more when the market dips - unfortunately most people sell on the downside and never recover. PM can also manage the client and control his emotions.

As I said before, in a bull market everyone is a professional investor. It was easy to trade the US market for the last 9-10 years as we he a huge outperformance. Let's see if this will persist going forward - usually thing revert to the mean and money shifts fast.
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