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To get back on track with EV, I posted this to my fb wall not long ago. Not sure if I figured everything correctly...
I was just reading that Europe is pushing for all new vehicles to be EV (electric vehicles) by 2035, and how "on-track" Euro manufactures are currently to meet that deadline. I've always been on the fence for EV, I love me some horsepower, but EV has its advantages and can create amazing low end torque. So I decided to start doing some reading about EV sales and lithium mining. Now I’m no expert, and my math may be off, but here is what I found:
Current global new vehicle sales hover around 70 million each year. 2020 saw about 64 million sales, which is lower than usual due to the pandemic. About 4% of sales in 2020 were EV with sales at around 3 million. It is estimated that by 2030, EV sales will make up around 31% of all new vehicle sales globally. If we keep all new vehicle sales at 70 million, that means 21,700,000 new EV sales in 2030. That's in increase of just over 2 million EV sales per year for the next 9-10 years.
In 2020, lithium mines produced about 82,000 metric tons of lithium, roughly 30,000 tons of that went to EV batteries. Tesla, for example, uses about 10 kilograms of lithium per vehicle. If we use that number across the board for all EV batteries, that means by year 2030 we will require around 217,000 metric tons of lithium for just EV sales. That's an increase of 13,500 tons per year just for vehicles. If we add 50,000 tons as an estimate for other devices (which was the difference in 2020), that puts us at 267,000 metric tons of lithium to mine in 2030. An increase of 18,500 tons per year. In 2015 the US estimated the world has about 365 years' worth of lithium reserve using 2015 rate of 37,000 metric tons per year. We are now at 82,000 tons in 2020-21. We have already doubled our lithium mining in just 5 years. If estimates are correct for 2030, we will reduce our lithium reserves to 50 years supply, but that's only at 31% of vehicle sales being EV. The goal is 100% EV sales eventually, and if it continues to rise at the rate it is expected to, we will deplete out lithium supply in less than 30 years.
“But we can recycle lithium batteries”. Yes, we can, but most countries only see about 2-3% of those batteries actually get recycled. The US and Europe sees about 5% get recycled. Batteries are recycled by melting them down and stripping the precious metals away from everything else, which requires a lot of heat (energy) and releases vapors and gases, and right now recycling costs more than mining for new lithium so it’s not a “priority” of battery manufactures because it isn’t cost effective.
Lithium mines are not exactly environmentally friendly either, and the bi-product of lithium mining is believed to cause environmental damage to the surrounding area, as farmers in some countries have seen significant crop damage near lithium mines, but these are countries that don’t care and can’t be bothered to do tests and studies to see if the mining is indeed causing these damages.
So basically, our solution to cutting emissions and the need to drill for oil before we run out of oil is already on an accelerated track to becoming another depleted resource within our lifetime, and it’s potentially bad for the environment in other ways. But hey, Greta will be happy. I did find that they are developing new types of batteries that are supposed to be overall better for the environment, but they haven’t came up with anything solid yet.
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