Quote:
Originally Posted by bayarea328xit
I see the EV market evolving into the following branches:
1. Local only - pure-EVs with < 100 mi range
2. Vehicles with more than local reach - say 300+ mi
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Separate thoughts on this ...
(1.) I'm an autonomous vehicle bear; I don't think it'll grow beyond driver-assist for at least a decade, probably two. Further, I still think people will want their own vehicle in their garage - they won't want to rely on a service. (though some will and they'll become popular)
(2.) Same as above, I don't see level 5 AVs happening too soon ...
Further I think new subscription models will develop between power generators and consumers: power companies will subsidize auto costs similar to cell network providers subsidizing cell phones.
The real change will be energy deregulation, i.e., moving from centralized to distributed energy generation. We'll start seeing more cities, neighborhoods, and individuals generating their own power similar to the migration from mainframe to PCs. This will be cheaper, more reliable, more secure, and more flexible. EVs will become an extension of each person's energy grid - some will be net-consumers, some net-generators, many hybrid.
EV batteries via V2x technology will substitute for peaker plants and outages will be manageable at the home, neighborhood, or city level. For example, in the recent Texas outage, the "everybody plug in" message can be sent to provide backup power (in addition to megapack plants) while primaries come back online.
In any event, as I say, Tesla is at the nexus of the transformation of not one, but, simultaneously two, of the largest industries in human history: energy and transportation.
Given their brand equity, they'll have to work hard to fuck it up.