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Originally Posted by David70
This idea of storing large scale power for peak demand is still an idea that no one has made money on. Another hope.
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It's more than hope: it's been a full scale working peaker in Australia for 4 years, with the next one currently being built in California. Given a megapack is about 10% the cost of a gas peaker (which are already enormously tough to pay for) it's pretty certain that they'll sell ... the problem is going to be making enough batteries.
Quote:
Originally Posted by David70
I don't agree with the comparison to Amazon and the "rinky dink".
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Well we gotta remember that Amazon is 25 years in and Tesla is 10 years in ... not sure how long you've been following Amazon, but at the same period in Amazon's development they got all the same criticisms: no profit, people want the old thing (in-person shopping), infrastructure is too expensive, etc.
The "rinky dink" part is a nod to the potential on a normalized timeline: Amazon has to compete with Walmart, Costco, Target, and zillion other retailers, not to mention has a channel imbalance (clicks vs bricks).
Tesla, on the other hand, has already exceeded Audi's total sales (not just EVs, all sales) putting it in at #4 in its segment, is already making a profit, and is arguably building the infrastructure native to their product to outproduce anyone on the planet. Further, they have little overhead compared to the Bigs (no advertising, no dealer overhead, no legacy costs), and are almost totally vertically integrated compared to others. They also have the strongest brand. And beyond that, Tesla has more markets and more segments than Amazon (B2C, B2B, B2G) including a ~$3T power market.
So, quickly shrinking costs with growing sales, segments, markets, and channels. That's the dream scenario of any growing business, at least according to Warren Buffett.
But, will all of that potential come to pass or any of it?
That said, on a normalized timeline, Tesla's
potential far exceeds Amazon's ... but, to your point, Amazon has done it and Tesla hasn't.