Quote:
Originally Posted by GrussGott
So what forces do you think will bring the end of runway?
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I'll have to think a bit more to come up with a more complete response to your question.
Vehicle design = electric motor + power source for electricity
My zeroth order response is that, from an engineering point of view and given where we are now for the battery energy density (W/kg), everyone driving around with a massive battery in their vehicle all the time can't be the optimal solution if the majority of vehicles need a range of 300 mi with 0-60 times in the 6-9 sec range.
This is especially true if we contemplate the possibility of developing a highly optimized gas-based engine for generating electrical power in the vehicle - one that is decoupled from the drive transmission (and only used for generating electrical power, a la Nissan, above).
With the above in mind, it really comes down to the weight of the battery to travel 300 mi vs the weight of this hypothetical highly optimized gas engine. Whichever is lower will be the sweet spot.
There are then secondary considerations to include: (1) recharging time for the battery vs filling up the gas tank at vehicle end-of-range, (2) mechanical service requirements of the gas engine vs service requirements for the battery (if any), (3) drive experience (gas engine noise, acceleration, etc.), (4) required changes to the current infrastructure (grid, electrical power generation, user lifestyle - access to in-home/at-work charging if battery recharge times are long), (5) availability of raw materials (e.g., for batteries), (6) environmental considerations (pollution, CO2 generation), (7) political considerations (access to crude oil, raw materials for electricity generation).
It seems very surprising to me that the answer to the above optimization problem would be overwhelmingly pure-EV, and we are just now realizing this amazing solution when people have been struggling with the above for more than 3 decades.