Quote:
Originally Posted by M3Bahn
Prepare for riots in euro collapse, Foreign Office warns
British embassies in the eurozone have been told to draw up plans to help British expats through the collapse of the single currency, amid new fears for Italy and Spain.
As the Italian government struggled to borrow and Spain considered seeking an international bail-out, British ministers privately warned that the break-up of the euro, once almost unthinkable, is now increasingly plausible.
Diplomats are preparing to help Britons abroad through a banking collapse and even riots arising from the debt crisis.
The Treasury confirmed earlier this month that contingency planning for a collapse is now under way.
A senior minister has now revealed the extent of the Government’s concern, saying that Britain is now planning on the basis that a euro collapse is now just a matter of time.
“It’s in our interests that they keep playing for time because that gives us more time to prepare,” the minister told the Daily Telegraph.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/poli...ice-warns.html
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This is similar to what the U.S is doing with the bank stress tests. It's pre-caution. While there are looming discussions of a euro-break up, the break-up itself would be far more devastating than the ECB just printing money, and would cost a lot more as well. Most likely scenario is we get some form of Bailout from ECB. To my knowledge, I believe England has been trying to roil up everyone in the Euro zone, more nuisance than any help. They're doing it to protect themselves, but also to ensure their trade economy stays intact afterwards. More politics to address the situation publicly and a bit of fear-tactic here.
My personal opinion is that an immediate euro-break up is near impossible, simply because of it's logistics. Places like Italy can't simply convert from Euro dollars to Italian Lira's over night. It takes months to years to convert the entire money supply. And to do this on a broad-scale over all of EU, we're talking re-printing hundreds of trillions of dollars. Bailout in Euro more likely. But this is likely an issue that will keep re-surfacing as we go re-test October lows.
I'm still expecting a relief rally, small or large it will happen. We just had a really good kick-start to the Holiday season. Black Friday seems to have been a success, without question. 10% of sales were online, and online sales rose 20% from previous year. Overall total sales expected to rise 2-4% from last year. Black Friday usually dictates how well Christmas will be (Dec. 15th-25th). Companies make up to 40% of their annual profits in this 10 day window, and Black Friday seems to be a hit this year. This will be a catalyst for a rally, I am expecting.
If it doesn't come at all and I start seeing panic, I'm going to go into Defcon 3 like Mact and arm myself with shorts.
And you must realize, for Britain to be doing this now is a bit late. Asia has already established a firewall to protect themselves from a EU collapse. The biggest banks in the world on Wall Street have all been reducing their Euro-debt exposure, the Fed and America have already begun distancing themselves a collapse as well.