Stock market Thread II--Technical Analysis

[mact3333]

Caution metal players...money flow into gold has been abit weak over past 3 wks despite price surge...money flow into silver abit weak when compared to price action over past 1 week...some caution is needed.

I am looking for SLV to get to 42ish level but at that level might have to peel some off due to risk....3-4 wks ago I saw money flowing into metals when prices were tanking...opposite now...still think SLV will run abit higher but some divergences shwoing up now.

[mact3333]

As I said yesterday, big money was coming out of silver/gold while actual prices going up...something smelled abit odd in silver yesterday...new metal players MUST use stops...if you have been for awhile, have stops in place...dont allow yourself to get into the red.

The mkt will try to scare you out of long equity positions, but the IT trend is up above 1307!...see you soon near 1340-50!....

[M3Bahn]

Put this in your charts and smoke it.


The Head Of The World's Biggest Hedge Fund Sees "Economic Collapse" Due To Money Printing By Early 2013
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 07/18/2011 15:56 -0400

Bridgewater European Central Bank Greece Ray Dalio

As part of its most recent issue the New Yorker has released a must read interview with Ray Dalio - head of the world's biggest hedge fund, Bridgewater. Dalio's fund, which according to some may now be as large as $80 billion, continues to outperform even in this problematic environment, indicating that unlike various other managers who shall remain nameless, and whose wealth is built up almost exclusively on one trade (and that belonging to someone else in the first place), Dalio, despite rumors that he is preparing to leave his current position and is actively seeking a replacement, is still keenly able to adapt to changing macro conditions. Which is why his warning about future rounds of QE, which he sees as a certainty, should be heeded. Especially since it conforms 100% with the warnings of Zero Hedge - Dalio believes that future inevitable money printing will "lead to a collapse in currencies and bond markets." Dalio is even kind enough to give a time frame. "I think late 2012 or early 2013 is going to be another very difficult period." He is, to say the least, quite diplomatic.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/hea...ing-early-2013

[mact3333]

I respect Dalio quite abit...he is a smart guy...been following him for awhile...I too feel we top out late this yr or early next yr...I intend to pull everything out of mkt and look for short opportunities starting in early 2012...I think we enter a bear starting that time and wont end until we undercut the 2009 lows by a small fraction.

Originally Posted by M3Bahn

Put this in your charts and smoke it.


The Head Of The World's Biggest Hedge Fund Sees "Economic Collapse" Due To Money Printing By Early 2013
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 07/18/2011 15:56 -0400

Bridgewater European Central Bank Greece Ray Dalio

As part of its most recent issue the New Yorker has released a must read interview with Ray Dalio - head of the world's biggest hedge fund, Bridgewater. Dalio's fund, which according to some may now be as large as $80 billion, continues to outperform even in this problematic environment, indicating that unlike various other managers who shall remain nameless, and whose wealth is built up almost exclusively on one trade (and that belonging to someone else in the first place), Dalio, despite rumors that he is preparing to leave his current position and is actively seeking a replacement, is still keenly able to adapt to changing macro conditions. Which is why his warning about future rounds of QE, which he sees as a certainty, should be heeded. Especially since it conforms 100% with the warnings of Zero Hedge - Dalio believes that future inevitable money printing will "lead to a collapse in currencies and bond markets." Dalio is even kind enough to give a time frame. "I think late 2012 or early 2013 is going to be another very difficult period." He is, to say the least, quite diplomatic.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/hea...ing-early-2013

[mact3333]

Been trying to preach the bull train for awhile but nobody listening....

Will get even more aggressively on long side now...USD gonna sell off soon and take out May low...key level broken...USD down, equities and metals up...2 days ago I said "see ya at 1340-50 on ES/SPX"...well that didnt take long.

Need to consolidate for few days before next leg up...see ya at new all time highs in SPX by this fall.

Stocks climb a wall of worry and fall down a slope of hop.

http://screencast.com/t/gjbyOS3t


http://screencast.com/t/KkZmdimI

[mact3333]

very interesting.

[AngelinIsRich08]

I've been playing this market wrong all week. I'm fairly certain the markets will be down tomorrow as well. I've missed out on about 16% profits with SPXU bit won't mind gaining 4 or 5% tomorrow if markets are half as bad.

[mact3333]

Originally Posted by AngelinIsRich08

I've been playing this market wrong all week. I'm fairly certain the markets will be down tomorrow as well. I've missed out on about 16% profits with SPXU bit won't mind gaining 4 or 5% tomorrow if markets are half as bad.

Have I not been pumping AGQ for past 6 wks???....

Govt answer to everything is more money supply...more money more inflation.

[mact3333]

I have this weird feeling after SPX does obligatory snap back rally to 1263 we then tank....

[AngelinIsRich08]

Originally Posted by mact3333

I have this weird feeling after SPX does obligatory snap back rally to 1263 we then tank....

Why? I unfortunately have this feeling too.... I did buy SPXU and Sdow this morning though and I added to my SLV position.

[mact3333]

Originally Posted by mact3333

I have this weird feeling after SPX does obligatory snap back rally to 1263 we then tank....

1. SPX high 1260....tank...classic backtest of major trendline violated and tank.

2. AGQ rec'd at 160...now 235(+75).

[mact3333]

Originally Posted by AngelinIsRich08

Why? I unfortunately have this feeling too.... I did buy SPXU and Sdow this morning though and I added to my SLV position.

why, did you look at the chart I posted 2 days ago???...your answer right there staring you in da face....

[mact3333]

Trailing stops hit on AGQ at 225...protecting profits there....we should see relief rally for awhile to relieve the selling pressure/exhaustion....we will make lower high and selling resumes.

Mkt's didnt hold 1250 which was crucial...mkts to new high by end of yr theory in seriously jeopardy now...we are now in confirmed downtrend on ST, IT, LT basis now for first time since 09'.

[mact3333]

Lower trendline that has held since 3/09 broken now.

[ES_TRADER]

Originally Posted by mact3333

Lower trendline that has held since 3/09 broken now.

on the money...i expect a pullback, now that the TL has been breached, to a LH or HH now to exit longs and enter shorts

[ES_TRADER]

only way id get bullish is a close above 1275 on the week...so that we maintain that TL...but at this point, the chances of that are pretty dire....JOBS rept could possibly be a catalyst BUT that number would have to be Killer

[mact3333]

Originally Posted by richpuer

only way id get bullish is a close above 1275 on the week...so that we maintain that TL...but at this point, the chances of that are pretty dire....JOBS rept could possibly be a catalyst BUT that number would have to be Killer

agree.

[mact3333]

hasnt happened since the bull was confirmed in fall 09'....close up would show we closed below 75 wk moving avg...hmmm.

[AngelinIsRich08]

Originally Posted by mact3333

1. SPX high 1260....tank...classic backtest of major trendline violated and tank.

2. AGQ rec'd at 160...now 235( 75).

Ooo AGQ. Same happened with SLV but this fell twice as hard. Would AGQ be a good buy next week? It's $197 now from $235 this morning.

[mact3333]

the technicals show peoples fears, euphoric delusions and anxiety...the black boxes respect it also...Dow Theory sell signal in place now...transports and INDU both broke March lows.

But the final "marker" to mark THE top isnt quite in yet so I am now 60% convinced "the" top has been set...almost there...cash is king for now...if the bull train has officially ended we have plenty of time to get short as we are very early in this bear trend...if the bull is going to continue we better reverse course real soon.

[AngelinIsRich08]

Originally Posted by mact3333

the technicals show peoples fears, euphoric delusions and anxiety...the black boxes respect it also...Dow Theory sell signal in place now...transports and INDU both broke March lows.

But the final "marker" to mark THE top isnt quite in yet so I am now 60% convinced "the" top has been set...almost there...cash is king for now...if the bull train has officially ended we have plenty of time to get short as we are very early in this bear trend...if the bull is going to continue we better reverse course real soon.

Yep. The S

[mact3333]

for time stamping and book keeping purposes only.

http://screencast.com/t/bVmUXq4Rt