Stock market tips and experiences

[mact3333]

But I am thinking of lightening up abit or taking some hedges as this rally is about to be over for awhile...not long term but short-term to intermediate term selloff about to take place within the week.

I think this overhyped TWTR IPO is setting up for a mini blowoff top.

When I look at SPX and DOW charts, I see downside ahead...charts look risky....would like to see a 10% pullback followed by new all time highs once again next year.

And AAPL looking a little tippy too for ST and IT....FB still looks ok but it better get moving up again soon.

[mact3333]

TWTR priced at 26.00...its a buy imho at 35-37 range....beyond 40 its abit risky.

Watch level II action before it starts to trade...I will guess the first prints will be 36-40...if I had to guess, it will open 38-40.

Remember , TWTR isn't a profitable company so its a lot of potential and momo play...even FB was making a 1B a year in profit when it came public but they screwed up by putting out a high float and getting greedy...TWTR float is modest so the potential to be volatile and open up with big gap up is a lot higher than FB.

[mact3333]

unloaded AAPL, FB and VJET....too much gains to risk...gonna play TWTR with house money now....mkt looks topsy to me as I noted yesterday.

[F1Venom]

Nice call, mact! The underwriters did a great job with this IPO and it makes NASDAQ and MS look bad after the FB fiasco.

[Kwando]

Was in a meeting all day and missed the boat.

[mact3333]

rebought half my VJET position...took nibble on TWTR at 45.00

[mact3333]

did someone say mkt top?....

Originally Posted by mact3333

But I am thinking of lightening up abit or taking some hedges as this rally is about to be over for awhile...not long term but short-term to intermediate term selloff about to take place within the week.

I think this overhyped TWTR IPO is setting up for a mini blowoff top.

When I look at SPX and DOW charts, I see downside ahead...charts look risky....would like to see a 10% pullback followed by new all time highs once again next year.

And AAPL looking a little tippy too for ST and IT....FB still looks ok but it better get moving up again soon.

[F1Venom]

Thinking of buying 100 TVIX and holding for several weeks or if it hits $13. Bad strategy?

[amanda hor$t]

i like twitter, i'll wait until january and decide if i want to buy

the main difference between fb and twtr is that fb was already mature by the time it went public. twtr is still growing and has not begun a massive charge to make money

[F1Venom]

This bounce is ridiculous.

[r0wr]

Originally Posted by mact3333

VJET at 32.00...Is 35% gain in a little over a week good enough for you?.....

[Derek8819]

Any picks for this month?

[PSUSMU]

Sold DDD @ $70.60 for +40%

[Derek8819]

^^ Doesn't help, lol. I have $20,000 looking to make a quick small profit on in a short period.

[NemesisX]

Now that twitter is down to 41.65 per share what do you guys think (for the short term)?

We'd be happy with a 3 or 4% gain in the short term (if we bought shares @ around 41).

What exactly is TVIX? My naive impression is "wow this looks really enticing it seems to have hit rock bottom" without knowing anything else about it.

Like how stupid or risky would it be to invest maybe 25% of one's net worth (not including primary residence) in TVIX?

[NemesisX]

Yeah never mind TVIX is kind of scary. It'd probably be more prudent to invest an amount that you won't care about losing in is entirety.

[F1Venom]

Originally Posted by NemesisX

Yeah never mind TVIX is kind of scary. It'd probably be more prudent to invest an amount that you won't care about losing in is entirety.

I was curious about what would happen so I bought 100 shares at $18 over an year ago. I'm still holding and am down 99%. Lol

[Kabrich]

Originally Posted by NemesisX

Like how stupid or risky would it be to invest maybe 25% of one's net worth (not including primary residence) in TVIX?

It's stupid to risk 25% of one's net worth in ANY trade.

Rule of thumb.....risk only 10%.....and have a 10% stop.....so you can only lose 1% max.

[Kabrich]

Originally Posted by F1Venom

I was curious about what would happen so I bought 100 shares at $18 over an year ago. I'm still holding and am down 99%. Lol

TVIX is the 2:1 leverage product of the VIX. As with any of these leveraged products, they DO NOT move in direct 2:1 correlation. If you are unaware of that, Google it. Don't feel bad if you are unaware of it. Most professionals are unaware of that fact as well.

This is why these products are recommended for very short term. For example, the next time TVIX is at the same price as you purchased it over a year ago, the VIX will not be at the exact same level it was when you purchased it.

The more ups and down, the more the correlation changes. It's even possible that one can lose money in a leverage product trace when the underlying instrument makes a gain.

With that in mind, for looking at this, one needs to look at the underlying chart, in the instance, the VIX.

You will notice that this is on the C-D leg of an AB=CD down.

You will also notice that this should play out around ~18th, which is where I posted a week ago has been my target for several months for the market to turn and make a nasty drop.

Everything continues to line up and nothing has yet changed my mind.

But regardless, if I were to be buying TWIX (which I am not - and not suggesting anyone do based on my post) I would not buy it now - but wait until later this week when the VIX hits ~$11.77.

And as an aside, why have you held on to TVIX for over a year when you could have gotten out MANY times with a profit since then? Sounds like you are being greedy. Pigs get fat. Hogs get slaughtered.

[Derek8819]

What will you be doing with your invesments in prep for the possible coming drop of the market?

[mact3333]

out of VJET this am for 65% gain in 32.00--->49.50 in 2 weeks!...so how many huge winners have a I handed out this year?....

TSLA at 50.00...FB at 24.00...AAPL at 410.00...DDD at 35.00..AMAVF at 50.00...one loser was BBRY in at 10.00 out at 8.00

[Kabrich]

Originally Posted by Derek8819

What will you be doing with your invesments in prep for the possible coming drop of the market?

I do not trade stocks - only futures.

But if I did stocks I would have the leveraged ETFs on a watch list, such as
SDOW = Dow 3x Bear
TZA = Russell 2000 3x Bear
SPXU = S&P 500 3x Bear
SQQQ = Nasdaq 3x Bear

Not saying i would be in these now - but would have them on watch list ready to go if the market begins to tank in the time frame I am talking about. Besides, there will be plenty of time to get in the type move I am talking about. One does not have to be in at the exact top tick. Quite frankly 1 day will not be critical as the market until the end of the year at the very least would not be healthy.

But then again think about it. What are the infinitesimal odds that the market would turn on a date (even though for my personal own use I usually give a date with a +/- 2 trading day range) given so far in advance?

We'll know by the end of next week.