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      07-05-2016, 06:08 PM   #1
ezmaass
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New 650xi GC - Suggestions?

So, I visited my local BMW dealer today and got a quote on the 650xi GC - loaded the way I'd like it, MSRP is around $111k and change. In nearly the last 3 years, I've only put 16k miles on my 550xi. So, I'm trying to consider whether leasing or financing would make sense for the 650.

The quote I got was $1,567/mo for 36 months / 10k per year. This would include $9,600 in MSDs, which bring the money factor to 0.00049, or otherwise shave $91/mo. off the payment, totaling $3,276 in 3 years. There's otherwise no cap reduction here, just first month, DMV, destination, etc.

Configuring the car online, BMW's site gives a lease estimate of $1,546/mo - which includes $2,500 cap reduction but no MSDs... and is lower than the dealer's initial quote. Crazy, as the BMW site typically gives the worst case scenario in my experience. So, as expected, initial estimate from the dealer looks TERRIBLE.

I'm also considering financing. I'd love some feedback from you guys on what kind of discount off of MSRP you've seen on your 650 GCs? TrueCar shows a "good" discount as about 5% - 7% off MSRP, with "great" discounts being between 7% - 10%. What have you guys been seeing? At that rate, I'm thinking $111k MSRP could easily be taken to $104k - $105k and potentially maybe down to $102k - $103k with a "great" deal?

If so, financing the car could actually make more sense than leasing it at these rates. I'm guessing depreciation is horrendous at these rates... but to be fair, I haven't begun to negotiate at all.

Thoughts?
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      07-05-2016, 10:36 PM   #2
Walt White Coupe
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$100,400 window. $54,000 today. 2013 650ix 14,500 miles
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      07-06-2016, 12:06 AM   #3
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Wow, that is rape, and they aren't even going to use lube. Your lease payment should be closer to $1100/1200 without the MSD's. You can lease an M6GC for the same price.
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      07-06-2016, 05:20 AM   #4
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Notice Walt's post - then take into account that his $54K is probably high and/or retail. The cars are going through the auction for less I believe (basing off what my dealer tells me every time I think about getting out of my lease).

So here is the deal...this car depreciates like a rock. You would be MUCH better off to find a BMW program car and lease that or buy used. Purchasing or even leasing one of these new - especially one you order (which lowers your chance of a large discount even more) is just not the smart money move.
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      07-06-2016, 11:05 AM   #5
ezmaass
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Quote:
Originally Posted by doug_999 View Post
Notice Walt's post - then take into account that his $54K is probably high and/or retail. The cars are going through the auction for less I believe (basing off what my dealer tells me every time I think about getting out of my lease).

So here is the deal...this car depreciates like a rock. You would be MUCH better off to find a BMW program car and lease that or buy used. Purchasing or even leasing one of these new - especially one you order (which lowers your chance of a large discount even more) is just not the smart money move.
Yeah, I'm getting the sense that depreciation on these cars is some of the worst I've ever seen.

I've never been into used/CPO cars. It's clearly the smartest decision (buying 2 years old or so) - but I enjoy getting a car brand-spanking new and not thinking about who had their hands on the wheel or butt in the seat prior. In the case of the GC, the '17 also seems to add the updated iDrive 5.0 which is appealing. But all of that said, given the egregious price variance between new and 2 years old, I may think more carefully about it... if there was truly a perfect (fully loaded and low mileage) example out there.

I've put out 4 quote requests through Edmunds to local dealers - they're just starting to reach out this morning, so I'll see what some competition yields. Finance rates through 3rd parties (like PenFed) are very, very low, so unless there was a compelling lease offer, I'm leaning towards just financing.

Anyone here that leased new/bought new and can share their numbers? What kind of discount are you guys getting? Looks like MSRP of $111k on the car I've configured would yield about a $103k invoice.
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      07-06-2016, 11:33 AM   #6
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Having just bought my car a month ago, BMW has 0.9% financing. The car had just come off a 3 year lease, 14,500 miles, clean CarFax, perfect paint and not one wheel was curbed. And it had 10 months left on the manufacturer warranty and they put 2 years of their more limited warranty because it was a CPO. I love this car.
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      07-06-2016, 12:35 PM   #7
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More food for thought. I just purchased '13 650x vert, 23K miles. Sticker was $110k, I got it for $52K. so if you were turning it in as an owner vs a leaser, they probably gave the owner $46K at best.
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      07-06-2016, 03:58 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ezmaass View Post
Yeah, I'm getting the sense that depreciation on these cars is some of the worst I've ever seen.

I've never been into used/CPO cars. It's clearly the smartest decision (buying 2 years old or so) - but I enjoy getting a car brand-spanking new and not thinking about who had their hands on the wheel or butt in the seat prior. In the case of the GC, the '17 also seems to add the updated iDrive 5.0 which is appealing. But all of that said, given the egregious price variance between new and 2 years old, I may think more carefully about it... if there was truly a perfect (fully loaded and low mileage) example out there.

I've put out 4 quote requests through Edmunds to local dealers - they're just starting to reach out this morning, so I'll see what some competition yields. Finance rates through 3rd parties (like PenFed) are very, very low, so unless there was a compelling lease offer, I'm leaning towards just financing.

Anyone here that leased new/bought new and can share their numbers? What kind of discount are you guys getting? Looks like MSRP of $111k on the car I've configured would yield about a $103k invoice.
So here is something to remember...
The more options you put on your car, the better the reason to lease. I learned this the hard way with my 2006 550 when I went to get rid of it after 2 years and found out that things like: Comfort Seats, Fold down rear seats, etc etc - all were worth $0 on the trade. They only cared about the sport package, CWS, and transmission choice (so they based the trade on my car being worth $60K when I bought vs. the $70K the sticker was). With the lease, that fancy interior you want, you will get 60% of your money back -with the purchase you have just eaten that cost and will never get it back.

And...
With the lease, you are guaranteed a residual -so 60% of $111K = $66.6K (and I'm using 60%, not sure what the actual residual is). That's a lot more than what the car will be worth after three years (my bet anyway).

Now..
With a BMW program car - so a car that a BMW exec has driven, you get to lease with the residual based on the MSRP and the purchase based on what BMW sells the car to the dealer for (plus profit). I've seen $80,000 5-series lease for $650 a month (and that's with IL tax based on the entire amount of the lease payments). IF your dealer can find you one of these, it is by far your best bet - and only driven by one person prior to you

I will PM you what I ended up paying for mine BTW.
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      07-06-2016, 06:33 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ezmaass View Post

Anyone here that leased new/bought new and can share their numbers? What kind of discount are you guys getting? Looks like MSRP of $111k on the car I've configured would yield about a $103k invoice.
I leased a '14 640 GC. Money down was $1,500, 36 months and 10K miles. MSRP was $84, but my lease payment was $1,200 a month.

Got a lease quote from a broker in NY, same car and higher MSRP, lease payment was $980 with WA taxes. I asked for a 650GC lease with a build out of $110,000, lease was $1250 with WA taxes.

I ended up getting the 640 because of a trade.

M6 lease is $1,500~ a month without the MSD's. Right now you can pretty much get $15-20K off a M6 MSRP.
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      07-06-2016, 08:14 PM   #10
ezmaass
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Thanks for all of the additional data points guys. To be honest, given that my 550xi is loaded (and only 16k miles on it), and the 6GC won't have much of anything different (feature wise - just looks/style), I'm having second thoughts as to whether I want to swap out given how horrendous the depreciation appears to be on these cars.

Competitive quotes from 3 other dealers have started to roll in. Best deal so far is one offering sale price of $102k and change on $111k MSRP... but his lease prices are still garbage ($1,400+/mo with 36/10k). BMW's finance rates on CPO are very competitive, but their new car rates don't appear great. Best I'm seeing is 2.49%. My local dealer tells me he can match my CU @ 1.9%.

Doug, I hear you loud and clear - the options getting little or no trade-in credit later are certainly a concern. My 550xi is loaded (and I fully enjoy the features), but I know it'll fetch little more (if anything) than a car with half the options. If the lease prices are really this terrible, I'd probably opt to purchase... but I'd need to commit to driving the car for 5 years or so to feel better about the depreciation. That's certainly doable - I've driven some of my past BMWs 5 - 6 years and thoroughly enjoyed it... but I'm not confident the TTV8 on this car is solid bet for that timeframe w/o issues.

The fiscal conservative in me is saying to keep the 550xi - it's still hardly broken in at 16k miles, and the 6GC would really only give me a new style of car but pretty much the same options/features/engine. The "car guy" in me, however, wants to swap out and experience something different.
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      07-06-2016, 10:57 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ezmaass View Post
Doug, I hear you loud and clear - the options getting little or no trade-in credit later are certainly a concern. My 550xi is loaded (and I fully enjoy the features), but I know it'll fetch little more (if anything) than a car with half the options. If the lease prices are really this terrible, I'd probably opt to purchase... but I'd need to commit to driving the car for 5 years or so to feel better about the depreciation. That's certainly doable - I've driven some of my past BMWs 5 - 6 years and thoroughly enjoyed it... but I'm not confident the TTV8 on this car is solid bet for that timeframe w/o issues.

The fiscal conservative in me is saying to keep the 550xi - it's still hardly broken in at 16k miles, and the 6GC would really only give me a new style of car but pretty much the same options/features/engine. The "car guy" in me, however, wants to swap out and experience something different.
Get an extended warranty - I personally think the engine is fine, it is all the other stuff. That said, my neighbor (who purchased my 2006 550 and now drives a 2014 550xi) put almost 80,000 miles on my old car before selling it - problem free.

If you CAN go another two years, I say go for it and see what the new 5 looks like. But as a car guy, I totally understand not being able to wait any longer for something "new".

Oh and both my neighbor and I feel that his 550xi is far more responsive than my 650xi - but my car handles better.
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      07-08-2016, 10:53 AM   #12
ezmaass
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So, as it stands today, the best price offer I received was $102k and change on a car with a $111k MSRP. The lease prices from 4 different dealerships, however, still scream "large depreciation" to me. None of them were below $1,400/mo; however, my local dealer offered to match my credit union finance rate at 1.9%.

All of that said, I think I'm going to stick with my 550xi regardless. The car only has 16k miles on it, 2.5 years old, under warranty, etc. The car enthusiast in me would love to move to the 650xi GC, but the fiscal conservative in me can't remotely justify it. The depreciation is just way too steep on these cars from new. CPO or executive demo could be a more conservative option, for sure, and definitely seems like the "right way" to buy a 6. However, any of the older model year 6's are really no different than my 5 feature-wise.

So, I'll stay put and enjoy my 550xi for now... and keep the money in the bank. I'll wait to see what the next 5 looks like (although I really hope it doesn't look like a mini 7, complete with hockey stick), and maybe swap to that in a year or two if it's attractive... or maybe to a new 6GC if they don't screw up the design.

Thanks everyone for your input - truly helpful!
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      07-10-2016, 04:50 PM   #13
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get the acc cruise control and adaptive drive [ roll control]. i had these on my 07 650 and miss the adaptive drive on my 650 GC. they are both worth the extra cost no matter what.
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      07-17-2016, 08:29 AM   #14
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Thinking of a CPO 640xi GC, though the new '17 430xi GC is tempting with iDrive 5.0 and Apple Carplay available. What about lease rates for CPO/Exec vehicles. How do they differ from the new car lease rates??
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      07-17-2016, 12:03 PM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lrscpa View Post
Thinking of a CPO 640xi GC, though the new '17 430xi GC is tempting with iDrive 5.0 and Apple Carplay available. What about lease rates for CPO/Exec vehicles. How do they differ from the new car lease rates??
For a BMW Exec car, BMW treats it like a new car. But it is normally sold through auction at a significant discount.
Now, here is where it gets good - your lease is based on the MSRP of the car.

So, you lease a $60,000 430xi GC. But it was a BMW exec car, and went through the auction at $50K. Your lease is, assuming a 60% residual, is
$36,000 residual, $50K purchase.
In effect you finance $14K and pay interest on $36K.

vs. say a new car, and I'm not using real numbers here, but at $55K selling price you might pay off a loan of $19,000 and pay interest on $33K.

These don't seem dramatic - but they are significant. It gets even better when the car is a $130K M6 and you get it for $100K, then you are paying off $22K, and paying interest on $78K. Your lease payment on a $130K car can be below $1K. Which is what I was offered on an I8 recently (plus tax, title, bla bla bla).

CPO is normally not a great deal to lease unfortunatly.







It lowers your payment considerably.
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      07-21-2016, 05:08 PM   #16
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thats really high. i leased one in CA, 98K msrp. 12k year/36 months, $1100 a month taxes/dmv included, drive off was was 1 month payment zero msd, etc. on a car thats $13K more, payment should go up mayve $100-200 at most. and they quoted you less miles. i would renegotiate that deal. if its a car sitting on the lot, ive seen discounts of $15-20k+ on brand new 6 series here in CA. i also shopped 550I when i got the 6, those were going for same drive off, $800 a month. the price they quoted you, you can get an M6 gc.

Last edited by drmlee; 07-21-2016 at 05:13 PM..
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