View Single Post
      07-05-2011, 04:32 PM   #24
scorcherjf
Captain
scorcherjf's Avatar
29
Rep
769
Posts

Drives: 2008 135i
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: NJ

iTrader: (2)

Garage List
2008 135i  [0.00]
Ah fundamental vs. technical analysis... if one is making blind predictions based on not much, is that much different than predictions based on a certain indicator doing something specific (like breaching a bollinger band)?

So EVERY time the SPX falls below 30% it USUALLY marks a bottom? That can be reduced to "usually when A happens, B happens" which is dangerously close to one of those "recommendations based on air."

Anyway, I mean no disrespect. I'm a firm believer in both fundamental and technical analysis when used in a logical way but do you have any financial or economic insight as to why you think there's a bottom forming at certain times or why the VIX breaking a +2 standard deviation is meaningful? Are you assuming that VIX levels are normally distributed?
Quote:
Originally Posted by mact3333 View Post
This thread is meant for stock mkt trading based on technicals and other rational theories....not meant for blindly making recommendations based on air...we will all be right and wrong, but here lets at least have a reason why we think the way we do.

I posted this chart 1-2 wks ago and this was one of the reasons a long position was reasonable at the time.

the % of SPX stocks trading below the 50 day moving avg can sniff out bottoms...every time it goes below 30% usually marks a bottom...also need to watch blow off tops in the VIX(watch if its trading above 2 standard deviations above the mean).

I usually post on trading boards but since I spend alot of time on here, I will start a thread here.

http://screencast.com/t/3kiho4tgNrw
__________________
Appreciate 0